Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2018 1:39:25 GMT
This is where we will post the win chances for scum in small themes, based on calculations where a player is randomly lynched. (7 or less):
Ratings:
Format: (chance of mafia victory):(description)
0-20%: very townsided
20-30%: townsided
30-40%: slightly townsided
40-60%: balanced
60-70%: slightly scumsided
70-80%: scumsided
80-100%: very scumsided
Sacrifice: 50% (https://pastebin.com/WCRjCryw); balanced
Empking: 61.11% (https://pastebin.com/Jp6cj3uF); slightly scumsided
We Need A Fifth: 58.33% (https://pastebin.com/bn78z06N); balanced
SS3: 50% (no explanation needed); balanced
We Need A Clear: 60%; slightly scumsided; credit to Lux/Snaquaza
Vanilla4: 50%; balanced; credit to Lux/Snaquaza
Vanilla5: 53%; balanced; credit to Lux/Snaquaza
Drookez is Mafia Mafia: 25% (https://pastebin.com/HkY0Z6AY); townsided
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Aug 29, 2018 7:38:11 GMT
(For Mafia)
WNaC: 60%
Vanilla4: 50%
Vanilla5: 53%
SS3: 50%
Dethy: 1%
For what it's worth, it's better to be scumsided than townsided. Themes have a tendency of being more townsided in practice.
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Post by jodram22 on Aug 29, 2018 8:08:29 GMT
(For Mafia) WNaC: 60% Vanilla4: 50% Vanilla5: 53% SS3: 50% Dethy: 1% For what it's worth, it's better to be scumsided than townsided. Themes have a tendency of being more townsided in practice. 1% for dethy? Edit: Assuming a random player is lynched is only a practice in theory as it assumes there is no actual game played, and reads and plays can't be made which actually determine which faction is going to win. |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Aug 29, 2018 9:52:32 GMT
(For Mafia) WNaC: 60% Vanilla4: 50% Vanilla5: 53% SS3: 50% Dethy: 1% For what it's worth, it's better to be scumsided than townsided. Themes have a tendency of being more townsided in practice. 1% for dethy? Edit: Assuming a random player is lynched is only a practice in theory as it assumes there is no actual game played, and reads and plays can't be made which actually determine which faction is going to win. It does matter for his labels of "scumsided" and "townsided". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2018 0:22:34 GMT
1% for dethy? Edit: Assuming a random player is lynched is only a practice in theory as it assumes there is no actual game played, and reads and plays can't be made which actually determine which faction is going to win. It does matter for his labels of "scumsided" and "townsided". Winning dethy as scum in fish if someone hosted dethy for fish against good town should win you 100 points |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2018 0:23:12 GMT
(For Mafia) WNaC: 60% Vanilla4: 50% Vanilla5: 53% SS3: 50% Dethy: 1% For what it's worth, it's better to be scumsided than townsided. Themes have a tendency of being more townsided in practice. Also you need to post the link for the calcs |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2018 0:35:24 GMT
But if town is bad you can lie about sanity in order to falsely clear yourself |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Aug 30, 2018 7:00:08 GMT
Vanilla4: 2 out of 4 survive the lynches. That's 2/4 = 50%.
Vanilla5: Day 1 is 4 out of 5 chance to survive for Mafia. Day 2 it is 2 out of 3. (4/5)*(2/3)=53
WNaC: Day 1 it's a 3 out of 5 to lynch Town. Then it's a 1 in 2 chance to lynch town (and win). If Mafia lynch, it's a 1 in 3 chance to win, as only 1 of 3 can survive. If Mafia lynch, it turns into the Vanilla4 situation.
(3/5)*(1/2)+(3/5)*(1/2)*(1/3)+(2/5)*(1/2) = 0.6 = 60%
SS3: You have two VT claims and lynch one.
Dethy: Just don't play this.
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