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Post by Fame on Nov 12, 2023 19:52:07 GMT
SHUT IT DOWN!
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Post by Clouds on Nov 12, 2023 20:00:30 GMT
SHUT IT DOWN!
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Post by iavh on Nov 12, 2023 20:02:27 GMT
SHUT IT DOWN!
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 22:37:34 GMT
Here is the vote history colour coded for your perusal.
Day 1
PenguinD vote Fame
saltiestcatcus vote Fame
NewsDan vote Gary
saltiestcatcus vote Gary
Fame vote NewsDan
Clouds vote Gary
sayggtome vote gary (didn't count)
Clouds vote Kliff
Clouds vote Gary
iavg vote saltiestcactus
Gary vote schia
Prodigu vote fenrir
Clouds vote Spieky
Fame vote Spieky
Newsdan vote Spieky
IAVG vote spieky
cuddles vote myan
Schia vote LittEleven
kliff vote Spieky
Prodigu vote Myan
Penguin vote Newsdan
cuddles vote Newsdan
sayggtome vote Spieky
Penguin vote Fame
Litteleven vote Spieky
Result is Spieky died in a runaway however NewsDan was at least somewhat close until Saygg and Penguin voted. Litt's vote was window dressing and if anything is kind of towny. Penguin moving from Dan to Fame at the time that they did is a very interesting vote and could easily be them moving their pre-emptive distancing vote off of Dan to secure the Spieky miselim without participating in it.
Fame, Schia and NewsDan received votes from dead town on this day.
Day 2
Myan vote Gary
Kliff vote Sayggtome
PenguinD vote iavh
Clouds vote iavh
Clouds vote Gary
Edjeanerations vote PenguinD
sayggtome vote iavh
Fame vote Gary
Gary vote iavh
litteleven vote Gary
Edgenanerations vote iavh
kliff vote Gary
Prodigu vote Gary
The result was Gary going over IAVH based entirely on the last two votes. We know Prodigu was town. Kliff is firmly POE and remains alive, as does IAVH. Kliff and IAVH have strong partner equity here. Noting when confronted as to why Kliff is town in discord NewsDan made the point that Kliff has no partners, but Kliff/IAVH would be a very easy thing for him to see. Given Kliff has two potential partners that are both firmly POE, Kliff is firming as the best chop today.
Penguin (1) and IAVH (2) received votes from dead town on this day.
Day 3
Clouds votes Cactus
Clouds votes Schia
Penguin votes Newsdan
Schiavetto votes Clouds
Clouds votes Cactus
Mac votes Cactus
Kliff votes Cactus
Mac votes IAVH
IAVH votes Mac
Schia votes Newsdan
Sayggtome votes IAVH
Fame votes Newsdan
Newsdan votes Cactus
Clouds votes MyanMario
Mac votes MyanMario
Schia votes MyanMario
Fame votes MyanMario
Penguin votes Cactus
Sayggtome votes MyanMario
Clouds votes Cactus
Litt votes Cactus
Clouds votes NewsDan
Penguin votes NewsDan
MyanMario votes IAVH
Penguin votes Cactus
Cactus votes MyanMario
Clouds votes Cactus
Result MyanMario (town) goes over Cactus (also town) in a tie. Again, NewsDan was within reach at the point Penguin voted him but again Penguin casts a vote off of Dan and onto a town which indirectly kills the NewsDan counterwagon and leads to a t/t split. This is the second time this has happened in the game.
IAVH received another vote from dead town this day.
Day 4
Clouds votes NewsDan
Litteleven votes Penguin
Kliff votes Cactus
Penguin votes Cactus
Schiavetto votes NewsDan
NewsDan votes Penguin
MacDougall votes Clouds
Clouds votes Cactus
Fame votes Cactus
MacDougall votes IAVH
Penguin votes Dan
MacDougall votes Penguin
Schiavetto votes Kliff
Clouds votes Penguin
Clouds votes Cactus
Mac votes Kliff
Fame votes Kliff
Mac votes Cactus
Clouds votes NewsDan
NewsDan votes Cactus
Fame votes NewsDan
Fame votes Cactus
Result, Cactus goes over NewsDan in a split. Notably, Kliff voted Cactus and left his vote there, and NewsDan despite having opportunity to do so, chooses to self pres onto Cactus and not Kliff. Potential for partners, again showing. Cactus no showed and did not self pres. No town received a vote from dead town this day.
Other important stuff.
Of living players here are the list in order of dead town votes from most to least
IAVH - 3
Penguin, Fame, Schia, NewsDan (1)
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 22:50:07 GMT
Here is the vote history colour coded for your perusal. Day 1 PenguinD vote Fame saltiestcatcus vote Fame
NewsDan vote Gary
saltiestcatcus vote Gary
Fame vote NewsDan Clouds vote Gary
sayggtome vote gary (didn't count) Clouds vote Kliff Clouds vote Gary
iavg vote saltiestcactus
Gary vote schia
Prodigu vote fenrir
Clouds vote Spieky
Fame vote Spieky
Newsdan vote Spieky
IAVG vote spieky
cuddles vote myan
Schia vote LittEleven kliff vote Spieky
Prodigu vote Myan
Penguin vote Newsdan cuddles vote Newsdan
sayggtome vote Spieky
Penguin vote Fame Litteleven vote Spieky
Clouds votes on Kliff is an additional confirmed town vote on Kliff. Day 2 Myan vote Gary
Kliff vote Sayggtome PenguinD vote iavh Clouds vote iavh Clouds vote Gary
Edjeanerations vote PenguinD sayggtome vote iavh Fame vote Gary
Gary vote iavh litteleven vote Gary
Edgenanerations vote iavh kliff vote Gary
Prodigu vote Gary
Further confirmed town vote on IAVH here. Day 3 Clouds votes Cactus
Clouds votes Schia Penguin votes Newsdan Schiavetto votes Clouds Clouds votes Cactus
Mac votes Cactus
Kliff votes Cactus
Mac votes IAVH IAVH votes Mac Schia votes Newsdan Sayggtome votes IAVH Fame votes Newsdan Newsdan votes Cactus
Clouds votes MyanMario
Mac votes MyanMario
Schia votes MyanMario
Fame votes MyanMario
Penguin votes Cactus
Sayggtome votes MyanMario
Clouds votes Cactus
Litt votes Cactus
Clouds votes NewsDan Penguin votes NewsDan MyanMario votes IAVH Penguin votes Cactus
Cactus votes MyanMario
Clouds votes CactusTwo confirmed town votes on NewsDan. Day 4 Clouds votes NewsDan Litteleven votes Penguin Kliff votes Cactus
Penguin votes Cactus
Schiavetto votes NewsDan NewsDan votes Penguin MacDougall votes CloudsClouds votes Cactus
Fame votes Cactus
MacDougall votes IAVH Penguin votes Dan MacDougall votes Penguin Schiavetto votes Kliff Clouds votes Penguin Clouds votes Cactus
Mac votes Kliff Fame votes Kliff Mac votes Cactus
Clouds votes NewsDan NewsDan votes Cactus
Fame votes NewsDan Fame votes Cactus
Further confirmed town votes on NewsDan 3, IAVH, Kliff (2). Extending green to Fame, Clouds and myself as humouring that we've been duped by the mech check on top of them both just being very towny is essentially an exercise in futility plus I have my own rolecard. Confirmed town votes are as valid as dead town ones for analysing which players have been pushed by town in case you need that explaining. Ultimately Kliff, Dan and IAVH are simply a mile ahead in this regard. And all three of them have equity with each other to certain extents. There is a team of 2 within these 3. That the third is actually a viable wolf regardless means that all three are probably just mafia. |
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 22:58:28 GMT
Crossposting from Discord
Anyway the summary of the solving is that Kliff, Dan and IAVH are exceedingly highly likely to be mafia and all three have equity to be mafia with each other. You have equity to be mafia with Dan, and Dan alone but your play is otherwise okay and defenses have a sense of entitlement to them that means I don't want to lump you into this group.
IAVH can conceivably be mafia with a lot of players in this game based on the way he has chosen to play. The only persons in the game that I have actually seen him give scumreads on are myself and Saygg, so whether that says that he struggles with fake reads and told me Saygg was mafia in private because it's simply true... I dunno.
I still purport that IAVH has the most likelihood of being town, but if he is mafia, Kliff is very much the most likely teammate by some stretch. Kliff also happens to be the most likely Dan teammate, and Dan the most likely Kliff teammate. Kliff is virtually outed in all worlds where the towncore is remotely sound.
If Kliff is town, he has saved or been saved by two other members of the POE that resulted in town dying, mathematically meaning he's complicit in pro mafia actions at least once.
Dan said that Kliff has no partners, from where I stand Kliff has an endless amount of viable partners, and Dan issuing a townread on Kliff for this reason just most likely means Dan is not genuinely solving the game, and definitely not genuinely solving Kliff.
Kliff also can be accused of having non genuine solving process based on his lack of energy in pushing his worldview since outing his information. His play can easily be described as being coasting. Which in a mafia stomp with two mafia teams is not a good look of course.
Is it plausible that the entire team is the POE? I think it's possible, I don't think it is probable. I still think there is one townie and possibly two, between IAVH, Kliff, Dan and Penguin. I think Penguin profiles as the most likely. Followed by IAVH who is honestly just kinda null really.
Kliff and Dan have empirical reasons to be mafia, profile as teammed with multiple slots, multiple POE members, each other and we should just kill one of them. Thanks for coming to my ted talk.
Given NewsDan has at least been towny enough for me to read him towny during the game and still has a sense of "ill show you, you'll see and i will laugh" about him. I'm voting Kliff.
vote Kliff
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 22:59:21 GMT
I was engaging with Penguin if you missed it. Hence the "you" part.
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 23:13:09 GMT
If we consider the entire POE to be
IAVH
Kliff
Dan
Penguin
Saygg
Litt
Saygg has a night action to use tonight, we can't really kill them today just on the off chance that they self resolve/land a red check etc.
The vote logic from within this list is interesting to look at.
LittEleven has somehow, despite never being out of the POE, or in any of the known "masonries" received one single vote on any game day and it was from Schia days ago. No members of the POE have pushed or voted for Litt. This is quite curious, as I would expect the solves from within the POE to require Litt to be within them, if Litt was town.
Both Penguin and Saygg had votes on IAVH on a day he nearly went over, and they held those votes. So it is in basic terms quite unlikely that IAVH is with either of them. Meaning IAVH is left with fewer possible partners.
Penguin votes NewsDan multiple times, but has not had their vote on NewsDan at the end of the day ever. NewsDan voted Penguin and held it until right at the end yesterday, when they moved from Penguin to Cactus to save themselves. At no point did they vote Kliff.
The only member of the so claimed POE that Kliff has ever voted is Saygg. He has voted overall very little though and solved very little. There's not really anything to preclude Kliff from being mafia with anyone based on his own play, based on other people, none of the POE voted him.
IAVH kind of has the least compatibility with POE members. Litt, Kliff, Dan, Penguin all look plausibly with just about all combos within.
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Post by macdougall on Nov 12, 2023 23:16:15 GMT
Actually I'm gonna vote NewsDan because Clouds was double stacked and that looks worse for Dan than Kliff by a tiny bit.
vote NewsDan
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Post by Clouds on Nov 12, 2023 23:51:22 GMT
vote NewsDan
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Post by Clouds on Nov 12, 2023 23:52:05 GMT
unvote
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Post by Clouds on Nov 12, 2023 23:52:50 GMT
realized that made it L-1
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Post by Fame on Nov 13, 2023 1:50:14 GMT
Unvote NewsDan
Vote Kliff
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Post by Fame on Nov 13, 2023 1:52:57 GMT
Unvote Kliff (also unvote Clouds bc I thought I was on NewsDan)
I wanna vote NewsDan actually but don't want hammer yet
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Post by Clouds on Nov 13, 2023 3:11:41 GMT
vote iamveryhappy
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Post by sayggtome on Nov 13, 2023 4:03:50 GMT
Vote Dan
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Post by Fame on Nov 13, 2023 4:05:25 GMT
Vote NewsDan
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Post by ForgotToFlush on Nov 13, 2023 4:09:51 GMT
Votecount Update 5.0 newsdan has been voted out. Message me if there's an issue with the votes. Votecount Sheet ( x)
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Post by ForgotToFlush on Nov 13, 2023 4:10:59 GMT
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Post by Fame on Nov 13, 2023 4:12:29 GMT
WE FUCKING DID IT
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Post by macdougall on Nov 13, 2023 4:27:58 GMT
Can't believe dan outed kliff here
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Post by ForgotToFlush on Nov 14, 2023 5:02:56 GMT
clouds has died. They were Town.
penguind has died. They were Town.
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Post by ForgotToFlush on Nov 14, 2023 5:05:00 GMT
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Post by Fame on Nov 14, 2023 5:05:45 GMT
.
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Post by Fame on Nov 14, 2023 8:59:24 GMT
Cnfirmation that Kliff isnt orange mafia because no result on kliff = he couldn't have been solo scum sending kill
but kliff can still be the other maf team which I'm betting on rn
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