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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:51:08 GMT
I mean, both of those quotes contain my opinion so I'm a bit confused here. The OM quote doesn't really show that I guess, but what I was trying to get at there was that: In the face of evidence that conflicted with your read on alex being town because of his aggressiveness, you pivoted to this read about vaguely 'liking his vote on AZ' without talking about any of the logic behind that vote and in general seeming like your stance on alex had not actually changed. It reads to me like this is just an opinion you would like to hold for the sake of preservation rather than possessing the thought-process to back it up. I didn't think it was directly conflicting. I thought the explanations were just saying him being aggro is NAI, rather than impossible as villager. I don't know how to explain it other than I like most of his moves/dislike Zero push on him, even if I don't agree fully with the delivery. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:46:32 GMT
I assume he means he doesn't trust unanimous consensus regardless of alignment Alright. I guess I agree is the loosest sense, but hopefully there's room for specific scenarios that may change this. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:45:09 GMT
scorr - 20% Lucas - 30% quo - 35% Alex - 40% OM - 50% Zero - 70% As for the readlists, hopefully it's villagey consensus, but I do think a larger part of it is the tiny playerlist which allow for greater chance of overlap in general. I do think my Alex read is staunchly different than at least a couple others though. Do you have thoughts on being ejected from the future should alex flip town? Still not really sure why alex is that far up for you - all I remember hearing from you was that you liked his vote on AZ and you thought that scum wouldn't be so aggressive. Can you elaborate on the details of that or add to it? Sure, I'm down with that. It's mostly that and his tone just feels villagey to me. Like aggro village type of setup. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:41:55 GMT
Ani I'm genuinely still kinda confused, what about alex's frustration and anger makes you seem like they are town? It's more than I don't see it as wolf-exclusive. A significant portion of the thread seems to be against him today which aligns with the increasing prickliness to me. I've been in that place as village, so maybe I'm projecting, but none of his posts really seem agenda-y. Not anything that a villager wouldn't do anyway. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:38:00 GMT
What that mean? Think they're w/v? I think its a pretty townie interaction from them, to the point where it's fairly unlikely both are scum together So you're thinking v/v exclusively and not w/v? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:36:41 GMT
I'm surprised by the other thread's apparent lack of interest in a direct mechanical conflict between Litt and dubz Litt moved to the no yeet after dropping the info so I'm wondering how chilled those toes are. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:34:12 GMT
One last thing - Snaq ◢ ◤ , what us your updated thoughts on the AZ and Ani slots considering their progression today? I posted stuff about Ani earlier, not there per se. Here's some posts. Response to AZReactive play
Ani lynching AZOverall state of mind (notice that my opinion on Scorrch really shifted, and while I don't think he's the best lynch right now at all - a good argument could change my mind) tl;dr I'm not as sold on town!Ani as before (and the read is relatively volatile), but I do still townread them. I feel like everything makes sense from a specific (insecure) Town!Ani line of thought. That said Animal Midwife , what do you think of this read of you? I mean, I'm village so I'll take whatever village lean I can get. Looks in-depth, but I'd disagree that I'm insecure. I feel comfortable here. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:29:27 GMT
I've seen multiple villagers not cooperate for whatever reason. Have you played with Alex before? Is he typically super agreeable as village? Though I'm not sure what you mean about him not cooperating. He does seem aggressive, but his reads seem genuine to me. Plus I like his vote for Zero today. Good to know. Still thinking his vote is decent. was looking back to answer AZ's question and stumbled upon this though. I've been thinking about who the Alex partner might be if he is scum (and assuming he even has a partner in that situation) and couldn't come up with anything satisfying besides scorr, and even that feels a bit too obvious. Alex/Ani though? I can very much see the world in which ani really does not want to vote alex, his partner, here as it is likely to have a strong impact on alex's odds of survival and tries to come up with any possible reason to not vote him, but doesn't want to really go into why that is because it is an opinion he does not actually hold. I mean, both of those quotes contain my opinion so I'm a bit confused here. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:27:36 GMT
About time I properly gave one; from town to scum, Quo OM -------- small gap (although becoming increasingly smaller) Lucas -------- big gap Scorrch -------- very small gap Animal Alex Sorry if you already said, but why is scorr so low? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:25:17 GMT
ScorrchingTheaph *, I've noticed that a lot of players have similar reads right now. I.e. I think everyone besides you pretty much suspects AZ and a lot of people also suspect Alex (at least me, OM, AZ. Maybe Ani). What do you think of these patterns, especially with regards to how you feel scum would've interacted with them (especially since you TR the targets): is it strange some people hopped on these wagons? I do not trust uni-anythingreads. Uni-anything? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 4:22:00 GMT
Ah I see. Why are you wolf leaning Lucas and village reading gummy? I can not follow Lucas' thought progression and honestly it is also in part a gut read. I always tend to tr bgb D1 because his playstyle feels genuine to me. He is scum hunting with his own playstyle. I think it was OM who said bgb is always scummy D1, but to me it is the opposite. Readsscorr Lucas quo Alex OM Zero How identical would the percentages be if compared to quo's list? so I've seen scorr as a top town in every readslist so far and I'm not really sure where it comes from. Lucas being high up on all the lists speaks for itself, but I don't get that same impression about scorr. Are we all buying into this "focusing on this other thread" read that I am? I assume not. from memory om/ani are the players who didn't elaborate on their scorr read I think Related question posed to everyone: Why are all the readlists almost identical? scorr - 20% Lucas - 30% quo - 35% Alex - 40% OM - 50% Zero - 70% As for the readlists, hopefully it's villagey consensus, but I do think a larger part of it is the tiny playerlist which allow for greater chance of overlap in general. I do think my Alex read is staunchly different than at least a couple others though. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 2:16:20 GMT
It might just be right to flip Alex though? Like as of now I cannot reasonably let them live in a lylo scenario whereas I might be able to construct a case for OM/AZ I'm kinda lost I feel like we've got a lot of time until yolo. I can see midgame worrying about this, but do you think not yeeting Alex today would doom the entire gamestate? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 2:11:12 GMT
We don't have a confirmed scumlist for either pl, which nuances it a bit. In honesty, with a 14pl I'm predicting it's going to be 10v3v1 with 2 in one thread and the 1-1 in another, considering this is a plot driven cs, and it's trying to be as interesting as possible. Another likely setup could be 10v2v2 which leaves it at 2 5v2 setups, but that's a little less interesting than the first setup I proposed I wanted to bump this and see if people agree / disagree, and a few things I want to touch on before I head to work A. why does the ISO suck oml B. Animal Midwife , why do you think lucas is more townie than quojova? - Is there anyone in the other thread you have a definite read on? - Does the AZ / Snaq interactions change any reads for you? I just think lucas is villagier than quo because he seems really insistent of generating activity. Like to the point where we're massively outpacing the other thread (which may have misyeeted due to the lower activity). So not that quo is wolfier necessarily, but just that I see a direct return of lucas's actions more clearly. No 100% reads but I do feel pretty confident on scorr being village and Zero being a wolf. The interactions don't affect anything for me. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:51:20 GMT
I act feel pretty good on AZ / Snaq interactions rn What that mean? Think they're w/v? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:48:03 GMT
My vote is based on what I found to be filler theory yesterday during the OM/scorr thing yesterday. I'm sorry, I'm not exactly sure what this means? Filler theory? The thing about RVS that didn't seem wholly applicable to the actual argument ongoing argument at the time. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:45:40 GMT
ScorrchingTheaph *, I've noticed that a lot of players have similar reads right now. I.e. I think everyone besides you pretty much suspects AZ and a lot of people also suspect Alex (at least me, OM, AZ. Maybe Ani). What do you think of these patterns, especially with regards to how you feel scum would've interacted with them (especially since you TR the targets): is it strange some people hopped on these wagons? Personally, in the case Alex!town, it seems quite likely that scum would hop on the wagon as it was a pretty easy push from Day 1. I think both OM!scum and AZ!scum could've gone for this. On the other hand, I feel like Ani!scum would have had an easier time lynching Alex!town than AZ!town (town / not partner at least). Only Alex, who clearly did not have much towncred, was on AZ so far so I don't think it was an easy wagon per se, and Alex clearly had quite some pressure on him**. So that makes me more confident on Ani!town than I was. Quo!scum would've hopped on AZ!town (or non-partner) at a less risky time, as both Alex and Ani had already lynched AZ. Both didn't have a lot of towncred per se, but a wagon of three is massive already right now and I'd spoken out against AZ too. Quo!scum could've also gone for Alex, but in the light of AZ already getting a major push, yet being probably seen as a less "easy" lynch makes it such that I do think Quo!scum could've made that choice. Fwiw I agree with AZ that your (Scorrch's) unique stances (with solid argumentation) make you feel town right now. It doesn't seem necessary that Scorrch!scum goes out of his way to be a contrarian (wrt his readslist) at this point in the game. I've only considered solo scum here, not partners. I do not really have a great reason to believe people are partners right now. *This could be an interesting point for anyone to ponder about I think, but especially to Scorrch's due to his different reads. **And judged from AZs posts start of Day 1, I would profile him as quite a capable player, so I wouldn't expect it to be the easiest push, especially for a player that does not appear very confident so far. I'm on the village!Alex train. Are you asking me patterns about wolf!Zero? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:42:49 GMT
I do think Alex's posts have been way more substantive today with the OM read (that has decent explanation) and read on me (despite emotional bias), which has improved the light he is in for me honestly. Would like to see what you think of AZ's posts today Alexander489 , as you're maintaining your early main SR. His TR on Scorrch seems based on personal/emotional reasons though, not for anything game related right now. My main worry is that he is town despite his Day 1 gameplay and that he is not used to the further depth required in forum games, with more reasoning, analysis and was overwhelmed by the expectations of him early in the game. I would like to hear how likely others think this is as I think it's plausible, but on the other hand I am also incredibly turned off by the gameplay still (as detailed before). I do agree that OM's push on Alex is very easy and seems more of a policy push than a hard scumread per se. To me it's more odd for the discrepancy between the hard scumread vs. what's actually happened than the push itself, but I'll come back to OM in a later post (based on last night's discussion). I don't see him as overwhelmed. He just seems to write short and aggro sweet posts as opposed to some of the novella style. I agree he seems village though. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:36:07 GMT
Readsscorr Lucas quo Alex OM Zero Would you mind elaborating on your Zero read especially? A lot has been said about it now but even if your main reasons are things already mentioned, I'd like to hear what you did specifically dislike about AZ and what reasons you didn't particularly have. Don't think you have elaborated on this yet It's based on the weird off-topic explanation given yesterDay with the RVS stuff. Felt like a cookie cutter response. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 6, 2021 0:24:48 GMT
Good evening y'all.
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 7:33:25 GMT
Admittedly, it does feel weird to have OM so low so I wonder if there's only one wolf in this group. Guess I'll recheck the other thread tomorrow and see if that ratio makes sense.
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 7:31:43 GMT
Reads
scorr
Lucas
quo
Alex
OM
Zero
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 7:28:11 GMT
I'm village leaning Alex today because the tone sounds unnecessarily confrontational for a wolf this early. I don't have the most pmeta on Alex out of everyone here but from what I've played with him he's pretty confrontational regardless of alignment so this is maybe not the best reason to tl him Good to know. Still thinking his vote is decent. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 7:25:40 GMT
Are the people at the bottom wolf leans? scum neutral town --- scum neutral town Ah I see. Why are you wolf leaning Lucas and village reading gummy? |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 7:23:22 GMT
I'm village leaning Alex today because the tone sounds unnecessarily confrontational for a wolf this early. Actually do not see why town would refuse to co-operate I've seen multiple villagers not cooperate for whatever reason. Have you played with Alex before? Is he typically super agreeable as village? Though I'm not sure what you mean about him not cooperating. He does seem aggressive, but his reads seem genuine to me. Plus I like his vote for Zero today. |
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Post by Animal Midwife on Feb 5, 2021 0:44:14 GMT
I'm village leaning Alex today because the tone sounds unnecessarily confrontational for a wolf this early.
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