Recent Posts

---TOWN--- (I changed my mind, was neutral at first before I wrote up the paragraph)

OM: I will admit, after the OM vs. AZ saga I had not really evaluated OM much. During said saga, I found it odd that OM got somewhat defensive and was unwilling to admit that Scorrch wasn't really entirely dismissed. Later, he kinda backtracked saying that he found it a start to dismiss Scorrch, which is more reasonable (though I still don't think AZ's respective post is anything significant). I think I gave OM too much flack for keeping the discussion going, when he did backtrack on it and it's valid to say that Mafia would want to gradually discredit someone and admitted that he also wanted to stir conversation. Honestly, now that I've read back on this, I get much more towny vibes than I did beforehand. He did cause major progress in the game by doing this. I do still think that he read too much into the post, but that does not make him scum automatically.

Later, he supported the attack on Alex and I think he worded very nicely what is wrong with Alex right now (after just accusing him). Like with Quo, I feel like there was a good possibility to analyse my posts regarding Alex and how it was a bit strange, but he attacked Alex as well. Still, I heavily agree with the posts describing Alex's behavior*, especially around that time.

Overall, I think OM has supported the town quite a bit this game and made a lot of progress overall. At first, I thought the saga with AZ was quite odd as he kept defending a stance I thought was nonsense, but as I said, it wasn't as bad as I'd thought. In the meantime, he did cause a lot of discussion, had good responses to people and clearly had active gameplay, which leads me to believe OM is also town right now (and I should've analysed him better before). I do feel like his reads have been selective - I'd like to see his reads on those he's not mentioned (me, quo, and past-start day 1 ani). I could understand it if he focuses on people he actively scumreads/finds reasons to scumread or wants to push, but it's useful to know townreads as well and also for us to gauge how erratically your opinion would change.

*However, I'm not sure if Alex is scum or negtown. More on this in my Alex analysis.

---SCUM---

Alex: Alright, Alex. Alex is a player my read could be very volatile on. Obviously, yesterday I had my "plan" to over-exaggerate Alex's faults and hoped to spark some kind of discussion by that. I still stand by the idea of some of those arguments*. Still, as OM mentioned, Alex has been easily agitated, and has largely made posts that really do not say anything or defend his overall style of gameplay. It was fine for him to have a slow start - Ani had it too, but unlike Ani, Alex has not made up for it by later curiousness. I am honestly not sure if Alex is (neg)town who is having trouble adapting to this environment, or scum who does not want to engage (...and maybe also has trouble adapting to the environment), but he was a negative presence in the game nonetheless in Day 1. His only real analytical posts came from being prompted, and afterwards he mostly defended his gameplay**. Then his responses are just aggressive when people call him out, which is just... unpleasant really and not helpful at all.

Relatively short, as a lot has been said and he's largely done the same thing. As I said, Alex could have been negtown thus far, but I need him to step it up. Give some more reads, pursue the read on AZ further, etc. I'm very conflicted what I want to do with this slot - to me he's clearly been the worst presence yesterday, but I also honestly believe it could be negtown and hope for him to develop into a better spot. On the other hand, it is very possible that he is defensive scum, so I want to raise the pressure Lynch Alex. Hopefully that gets us more knowledge on this front. ScorrchingTheaph , you seem very confident that Alex is (neg)town. Why do you think this specifically? I am very conflicted. My head says Alex is scum and my heart says he's town.

*I just tried to push them in a strange way and added reasoning that wasn't really good.
**If you don't think you were defeatist, maybe I didn't use the right word. What I meant is that you seemed very discouraged by any argument against you, which made it seem like you would just actively stop trying to contribute to avoid that critique.

AZ: My lynch is definitely between Alex and AZ right now. The start of the game, with the AZ vs. OM saga was not too interesting. AZs post was nothing special, didn't particularly disregard Scorrch. Personally, I don't really know why they'd withdraw their words, but I will assume it's to keep the start of the game friendly if Scorrch actually felt disregarded. In general, I don't think this argument around disregarding Scorrch means much wrt AZ. They kept calm and most people seemed to agree that AZ didn't really discredit Scorrch, so fair enough. The only thing I really want to mention here besides "can't get much out of it" is that I think (OM+AZ)!scum distancing seems unlikely to me. It seems rather odd that AZ would apologise, and OM would backtrack (to a less strong pov) yet keep insisting on his point. I feel like they'd have started less strongly?

For the start of the game, I'd like to know quojova , what was the reason for the extremely early game town percentage points for AZ?

Then AZ starts sussing me, so I feel sort of awkward commenting on it, but I honestly feel like the push feels very strange. The first direct read is presented in this post, where I think a valid point is presented*. The questions weren't necessarily very strong. Afterwards, there's no real contribution to get anything out of the remainder of the day. Apparently his inactivity / lack of contribution near the end of Day 1 was due to a migraine, so I will not hold this against him**.

Then, in today's post, the read is "expanded" with the same argument. I don't like how this is simply said, when I have made many posts, that you should be able to provide some more detail if you want to start a push. Only the questions argument from before came with an example, and that is what the entire "fake scumhunting" thing is based on, when there's been many things I've done - it feels like it's all been deluded to one particular point that could be pushed. Especially since, AZ has not mentioned Quo, despite (IMO) having a similar case of asking questions, my question is why the difference in treatment? I would like to know why almost all I did has been pointless**. It feels more like pushing an agenda than pushing from a real read, at least from the quality of the reasoning thus far.

The other points in AZs post seem very easy points to make. Alex is... definitely doing something strange, and Ani also seems like an easy target with the way that they do not seem fully confident in the game yet. These claims are pretty easy to make and seem like filler reads, in all honestly, while no reads have been presented on more active (and possibly respected) players, like Quo, Scorrch and OM***. So, I'm the only push of someone I'd consider more active so far. I did ask myself whether AZ!scum would push me, but I don't know why they wouldn't. AZ doesn't know me and I do think I've posted enough (and that it was a bit messy), such that arguments could be formed. For now, it all feels a bit fishy.

However, I am afraid that I am biased towards AZ****, because of their push on me. I've evaluated this and still came to the conclusion that I really have a bad feeling about the way AZ did their push still. I would like to ask ScorrchingTheaph for their opinion on AZ especially, as you're reading me as scum now as well, and I would like your evaluation of their arguments and the way the push happened, from a less biased position. I will (try to) be open to critique on this argumentation, as if the consensus is that I'm spouting bullshit on a situation where a bias is likely, I'm willing to let it go lol. So please tell me if that's the case. For now, I get the most scummy feeling from AZ, especially since I get a towny feeling from many other players as of now and I do not get a particularly towny feel from AZ in any post. The push is a bit strange, the rest of Day 1 was rather NAI/mechanical, and that's basically all that's happened.

I do find the wagon onto AZ so far a bit strange*****, though. Alex's case is semi-clear for me but it's also clear that I do not feel like he's the strongest player so far. Ani's not expanded on their claim, I didn't notice this before and it's a bit of an oversight, but I do not like that I do not know what their push is based off and that's honestly kinda odd. Animal Midwife , why the clear push onto AZ, seeing as how you were quick to lynch him today?

*I wasn't necessarily thinking I'd get a clear read from OM based on these questions alone, but did want to understand his line of thought for what he did, so I could judge how he plays better and be able to judge whether it was strange based on his reasoning, as it could be or could not be depending on his expanded answer (not just the yes / no).

**I'd also like to know what else he would have expected from me? I don't know what I should've analysed besides the saga, in all honestly. Do you feel like the analysis was worthwhile, but weak, or that it was weak to look at the saga in general?

***It does seem like they TR OM from the post responding to Scorrch, so that nuances it a bit.

****Especially since I do not get a real town feel anywhere, I'm somewhat afraid of a tunnel.

*****Kinda funny how now everyone who AZ sussed has spoken out against him though, with more or less arguments.

-----------------------------
This kinda makes me worry I'm leaning town on too many people 
Also took too long to make this, so I will not do an in-depth view per person again I think, but this is fully where I am at right now. Would like especially to hear parts you disagree with

Scumread -> Townread. Past and Future seperated.

litteleven
(power gap)
dubz
maple
genny
spiderz
chaostrodon
(power gap)
bluegummybear
---------
❓
OM~!
Lucas ◢ ◤
(power gap)
AlmostZero
animalmidwife
quojova
Alexander489

I disagree with all of these reads.

Oh yeah, Lynch No Lynch

If you want me to read or respond to something, please tag me in it for now btw, please

I'll try to respond to the other points later, but I was wondering when skimming what particularly strong associations I've made (besides Alex, which doesn't seem like a troll?). I've def been posting a lot to attempt to get us as far as we can. So what strong association did you mean?

Thanks for responding & that makes sense. Alex had the same reaction I think (and honestly I had too when I read up today I was like I... what...).

Do you think that, regardless of whether the RVS was good or bad, the discussion between OM & AZ was in any way strange, or the way people reacted to it (quo, me, scorrch, alex(!)), basically everyone at this point, feels good to have everyone be around 

Read a bit further (skimmed a few posts though, felt like more of the same, if I missed smtn feel free to point out). Clearly I agree w/ AZ that positioning is fine, even necessary in a way! And with quo that it felt like OM was kinda creating an argument that wasn't there - a bit of an overreaction it seems. Glad Quo got into this argument though because before I got nearly nothing from his posts but I generally agree with what he's posted with relevance to the game so far (besides the hidden argument w/ early townlean)

Can't get anything out of Alex, Ani, Scorrch so far. Alex and Ani haven't really done anything of note (please get involved) and Scorrch has been pretty typical with not much game relevant yet - besides the huge wallpost that I tl;dr'd. Is that game relevant and should I read it (otherwise: has someone read it, what did you think of it?). Would like to see Scorrch's opinion on the Quo/AZ vs. OM discussion that happened around him.

Unlynch Alex

Not done anything - not getting the extra action i m o

As a final thing, would it be a benefit to send someone into the past right now? I'm not sure, as it relieves them from pressure while I don't know if I feel comfortable just saying anyone should be saved the pressure right now, that's when the real action starts. We could have them swap with a specific person, but:
A) We get someone they/we as a group TR -> does that really help us, exchanging a probable TR for a TR. Could it? (Though maybe their thread will give information about good swaps rolewise, possibly)
B) We get someone scummy -> we alleviate pressure from this group, which I'm not necessarily sure is a good idea for the first vote.
C) We get someone null -> Why?

Would like to hear it if anyone thinks it'd be a good idea to swap tonight, and if so what option / why / something different?

Roleblock should always be nice, we'll get info from it and I don't think it should even matter that much who it is. Of course it's better for town to get it, but we can analyse the decision + potentially what happened due to it just as much whoever gets it I think (esp if something interesting happens).

Feels useless to say but, for now, it def makes sense to give it to someone who is at least clearly making reads on the game. Not ONLY because they may be TRd and actually have a good reason for the block (which is always needed), but also because we can analyse their reasoning better, and I'd appreciate all info right now as we can't pressure someone by vote right now and the reward doesn't really threaten anyone either

Conclusion of posts: just read it for my general opinion, its just a basis for future reads as altho some things were more odd than others (as explained) i really cannot say I have strong reads yet, so seek the nuance

Wow, would you look at these two posts! First off we start with a direct greeting from player AlmostZero to player quojova, aknowledging both of their simultaneous existences in both past and present games. Quite an impressive nod to the time-traveling theme of the current game. This initiation is noteworthy because it is AlmostZero's first post in the game; their one and only chance to make a first impression. AlmostZero chooses not to address the entire playerlist, which in reality is actually halved due to the unique mechanics of this unique dual thread no outside contact closed setup game hosted by the esteemed Forum Hero ForgotToFlush on the Pokemon Showdown! Mafia Forums, but instead addresses a singular player, quojova, in particular and temporarily casts aside the rest of the players in the game. After singling them out in such a fashion, AlmostZero pauses for a singular line, before proceeding to make a power play by doubling down and lynching quojova with the apparent intent of awarding them the power to switch places with or roleblock another player in the sister thread. Another pause for emphasis. Next comes AlmostZero's reasoning. At first glance it appears to be blatant Gambler's Fallacy, a somewhat common logical fallacy in Mafia games. This fallacy relies on misunderstanding of probability, that takes advantage of past events to make an assumption about a independent randomized event, as if it were somehow dependent on what happened previously. How could one person's past roles influence what their current role is? Of course it shouldn't. Every mafia game's roles and alignments are determened randomly, without regard to other games. This poses the question of whether or not this fallacy was committed intentionally. A deep-dive into AlmostZero's post history makes it obvious that they are a seasoned mafia veteran who would not be privy to making such mistakes. Ergo, this perfect example of Gambler's Fallacy must have been orchestrated with some specific purpose, thus eliminating the possibility of a naive AlmostZero making a sloppy read. Could it be that AlmostZero is scum that wants to protect their partner by planting a seed of towniness on quojova with the intention of pulling the wool over the townies' eyes by using false evidence to discreetly sway the town? Or could it be that they be a scum member that is attempting to pocket a town quojova with that statement, in the hopes of establishing a relationship of mutual trust where AlmostZero is actually working against quojova's goals? Or could it be that AlmostZero is a townie that is attempting to lure a scum quojova into a false sense of security which would make them more prone to slipping or making careless mistakes? Or could it be that AlmostZero and quojova are both Masons and they want to establish a public fail-safe interaction where either one can fall back on in case the other dies? What might be more likely is that AlmostZero is not only aware of their usage of Gambler's Fallacy, but also aware that everyone else will be capable of noticing and deducing that AlmostZero is aware that they know that he knows they know. This further clouds the meaning which leaves us with simply too many possibilities to list. Next we have quojova's genius response. It may seem like he just reitterates what AlmostZero says, even copying the use of third-person speech even though he is talking about himself, but the meaning has actually been drastically altered. AlmostZero stated that in all previous games that AlmostZero and quojova have been in, quojova has been town. quojova states that in all previous games that quojova and quojova have been in, quojova has been town. Both of their statements can be fact-checked if one so desires, but their legitimacy is not too important. Even without looking into quojova's game history, it is incredibly unlikely that they have never played a single scum game in their life. Surely this has to be a lie. It is possible that such an inaccuracy could be an aknowledgement towards the understanding of AlmostZero's use of Gambler's Fallacy. This would mean that quojova has some ideas as to what AlmostZero could or could not be planning, which is further confirmed by the start of his sentence: "I get what you mean." The alteration of the original message also shows that he is still on his toes and is not willing to believe everything that AlmostZero has to say. The lack of any straightforward pressure or resistance means that he is willing to accept AlmostZero's vote to reward, meaning that he thinks that he himself is a decent candidate to use any powers, if granted. This can be interpreted in multiple non-exclusive ways such as quojova thinking highly of themselves as a player, quojova being afraid of power being placed in another player's hands, quojova desiring such powers to establish control over the game, quojova lacking trust in other players, and/or quojova being mostly indifferent to gaining powers for one night. quojova must also be aware that other players are capable of noticing the intricacies of his post so he chooses to say no more than needed, beginning and ending his post with a singular line. It is quite impressive how much these two players were able to say with so little words. Such brilliance, I think I will increase both of their town probabilities by half a percentage. You may not like it, but this is what peak mafia looks like.

Animal Midwife what community are you from btw? I doubt I'll use it for any deep research but I heard there's 3 different communities in this game

>You may now vote to reward someone.
my mistake
Vote Nolynch

ANY VOTERS IN THE CHAT?