Post by clc ironic on Aug 6, 2017 2:40:38 GMT
Hey, after playing a setup that was similar to vanilla, I realized that the EVs of Vanilla are pretty scumsided. Here, I will calculate every single Vanilla setup and the EVs for them.
The EVs of a setup are practically the chances Mafia/Town (For this, I will use Mafia's chances because it's easier to calculate. However, to find town's chances, just subtract Mafia's chances from 100%) when each player random lynches. Now obviously there are many variables in a Mafia game that make it so Math isn't exactly the greatest use when looking for a setup's balance, but it is still a good representation. [If you want some of the variables, they would be, for example; Mafia won't lynch their own scum partner sometimes so theoretically the chances are higher for Mafia, but then there's WIFOM which means Mafia could bus, and then there are universal town reads, etc. etc. etc. This is just for demonstration purposes.]
These chances are the chances Mafia will win.
4p: 50%
5p: 40%
6p: 40%
7p: 28.6%
8p*: 45%
9p: 70.2%
10p*: 72.8%
11p: 64.8%
12p*: 68%
13p: 58.3%
14p*: 55.7%
======================
15p: 76.6%
16p:
17p:
18p:
19p:
20p:
pastebin.com/hsNEGB8F - 4p to 13p
pastebin.com/CUQReEdu - 14/15p
* = Considering you would only NL when its MYLO, and will always NL during MYLO.
I finished the EVs for 4-14p, all of which I can say for certain are correct. 15p+ is extremely difficult. If someone wants to volunteer to do it, they can, but I don't recommend it (look at my second pastebin and you'll understand). The standard deviation of this set of data is 14.436160406172
, or 14.4, and the mean of this set of data is 53.945454545455, or 53.9%. 39.5 - 68.3% is where around 68% of the data will be, while 25.1% - 82.7% would be where around 95% of the data is. If we use the fact that the outliers are one standard deviation away from the mean (68% of the data), then 7p, 9p, and 10p are all unbalanced. If we use two standard deviations, then all are balanced.
In my opinion, a very simple fix to the 7p setup would be to make the Mafia not lovers, giving them now a 57.1% chance to win instead.
If anyone wants to help me complete the other setups, feel free to pm me on here or on PS Mafia. Also if I made any mistakes, be sure to let me know.
The EVs of a setup are practically the chances Mafia/Town (For this, I will use Mafia's chances because it's easier to calculate. However, to find town's chances, just subtract Mafia's chances from 100%) when each player random lynches. Now obviously there are many variables in a Mafia game that make it so Math isn't exactly the greatest use when looking for a setup's balance, but it is still a good representation. [If you want some of the variables, they would be, for example; Mafia won't lynch their own scum partner sometimes so theoretically the chances are higher for Mafia, but then there's WIFOM which means Mafia could bus, and then there are universal town reads, etc. etc. etc. This is just for demonstration purposes.]
These chances are the chances Mafia will win.
4p: 50%
5p: 40%
6p: 40%
7p: 28.6%
8p*: 45%
9p: 70.2%
10p*: 72.8%
11p: 64.8%
12p*: 68%
13p: 58.3%
14p*: 55.7%
======================
15p: 76.6%
16p:
17p:
18p:
19p:
20p:
pastebin.com/hsNEGB8F - 4p to 13p
pastebin.com/CUQReEdu - 14/15p
* = Considering you would only NL when its MYLO, and will always NL during MYLO.
I finished the EVs for 4-14p, all of which I can say for certain are correct. 15p+ is extremely difficult. If someone wants to volunteer to do it, they can, but I don't recommend it (look at my second pastebin and you'll understand). The standard deviation of this set of data is 14.436160406172
, or 14.4, and the mean of this set of data is 53.945454545455, or 53.9%. 39.5 - 68.3% is where around 68% of the data will be, while 25.1% - 82.7% would be where around 95% of the data is. If we use the fact that the outliers are one standard deviation away from the mean (68% of the data), then 7p, 9p, and 10p are all unbalanced. If we use two standard deviations, then all are balanced.
In my opinion, a very simple fix to the 7p setup would be to make the Mafia not lovers, giving them now a 57.1% chance to win instead.
If anyone wants to help me complete the other setups, feel free to pm me on here or on PS Mafia. Also if I made any mistakes, be sure to let me know.
Pikachu is my God.
