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Post by Gary The Savage on Jun 14, 2021 0:07:39 GMT
as stated in my wallpost, vertigo was and still is a sl for having done nothing to contribute to the game, let alone a town wincon
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 0:13:16 GMT
guys tbh im way too tired due to phase 2 vaccine to do full analysis rn so all I'm going to do for a bit is more casual talking in thread
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 0:21:14 GMT
so let me get everything straightened out, here: your read is that gary is town because he has no visible compatible partners? i'd like to see your thoughts on why everyone who might be a gary partner can't, and preferably in the span of one or two posts not none but i didn't think any gary wagoners were likely bussers and of the non-gary voters some of them are like sky who is my top tr and in general how often do you see such a fast wagon formation on scum from the outset of the day based in imo fairly weak reasoning without anyone opposing it; it was extremely unnatural to me i will reevaluate all of this at some point later in the phase but not rn also i think i asked you who you thought were the most likely gary partners yesterday; you might have but did you ever respond to that? |
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 0:26:20 GMT
  This is kind of where my head is at right now. Accuracy is off because it was made in a rush
Gary can die another day. Cyan should die today.
Vote Cyan Talon
I need to revisited other slots.I like the idea of a cyan wagon tbh were you updating the values throughout the game or did you do this all now? |
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 0:26:54 GMT
I like the idea of a cyan wagon tbh were you updating the values throughout the game or did you do this all now? i care due to a very specific but slightly dumb reason |
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 0:28:05 GMT
i can't believe u made graphs lmao why do you think gary should be voted later/cyan should be voted right now? I'm losing faith in the Gary read and gaining more confrontable with a Cyan Flip. Gary death would of been more preferable yesterday. didn't you think gary was just mafia what could have possibly changed your mind since EoD2 |
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Post by Gary The Savage on Jun 14, 2021 1:13:56 GMT
wouldn't it be better to vote vertigo over sfl though? I feel like the sfl vote is just a bank shot and hoping it hits
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 1:20:07 GMT
wouldn't it be better to vote vertigo over sfl though? I feel like the sfl vote is just a bank shot and hoping it hits i mean no one should be hanged atp without their iso thoroughly inspected |
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Post by Fort Colorcastle on Jun 14, 2021 1:33:09 GMT
guys tbh im way too tired due to phase 2 vaccine to do full analysis rn so all I'm going to do for a bit is more casual talking in thread quo getting vaccinated finally
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 1:53:35 GMT
I'm losing faith in the Gary read and gaining more confrontable with a Cyan Flip. Gary death would of been more preferable yesterday. elaborate on this, why are you more comfortable with a cyan flip and why r u losing faith in gary read exactly? these vague answers don't get us anywhere why did u stop pushing peng yesterday when u sr'd him all of d1? it seems like ur reads keep changing day to day which is weird
PenguinD was may Day 1 vote which wasn't successful, Then I founded a better vote which was Gary and I also felt PeguinD was a scum read that would flip town. Gary did not get lynched
on Day 2. They started to seem less scum though near EOD. Seeing all the different interactions and reads regarding Gary I didn't feel too confrontable continuing the lynch onto Day
3. So I am lynching Cyan Now my other scum lean. |
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 1:56:06 GMT
This is kind of where my head is at right now. Accuracy is off because it was made in a rush
Gary can die another day. Cyan should die today.
Vote Cyan Talon
I need to revisited other slots. I like the idea of a cyan wagon tbh were you updating the values throughout the game or did you do this all now? All at Once |
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 2:00:03 GMT
I like the idea of a cyan wagon tbh were you updating the values throughout the game or did you do this all now? All at Once is this like how your reads changed over time as you reread the thread? |
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 2:00:35 GMT
I have decided to give town points to kliff for the scum formula post Why are you on them Still till this day? If they flip town Where would you look next? |
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 2:02:21 GMT
is this like how your reads changed over time as you reread the thread? |
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Post by quojova on Jun 14, 2021 2:06:39 GMT
is this like how your reads changed over time as you reread the thread? what was the point in going through all the updates |
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 2:13:19 GMT
It's like very confusing to me why cyan and articu are applying the "status quo" defense to peng but not to gary fwiw I don't buy into that defense at all but it feels selectively applied even at eod i largely believed that the gary vote didn't have much substance to it, its less so me tl'ing them as compared to not understanding the vote but you have a point, i didn't realize at first that gary was the primary counter-wagon to ddlc since it...doesn't make sense i can't understand thought progression so i assume it to be a null or a scumpush Who are the players you are acusing of an "scumpush" on gary? |
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Post by kliff on Jun 14, 2021 2:16:34 GMT
No more of a Re-Remember. I am going to reread some players again what was the point in going through all the updates |
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Post by chaostrodon on Jun 14, 2021 3:34:17 GMT
I have decided to give town points to kliff for the scum formula post Why are you on them Still till this day? If they flip town Where would you look next? So my pool looks something like : GTS , Cyan , Vertigo , Fortcolors , Wallape and Articunight The shifting of votes of Gary or onto Penguin at the EOD yday makes me think Gary has a team. I mean , how is it possible that one generic wallpost caused so many people to shift off. That being said , Gary- Cyan and Gary-Vertigo are not probably compatible And from recent developments , I doubt Fortcolors - Vertigo are not compatible either If Gary flips town , I will look at my pool again and do more interaction analysis |
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Post by cyan on Jun 14, 2021 5:39:25 GMT
Anyways, I must say that I think gary hasn't been as scummy as people claim he is, and I did my iso and concluded he was town, so I'm not quite comfortable with that wagon right now. I do wonder if scum!cyan actually just parks a vote on gary for 3 days though? That's a LOT of conviction in a read, especially with people debunking (what i saw as) the primary indecisiveness argument. Now, from what I can see, the main reason to lynch Gary is that... he's been a counterwagon for both days we lynched a town? That's.... an interesting argument to say the least xd. when all else fails, you go back to basics. and basics tell me gary's wagon has had two consecutive counters that were pushed primarily for anti-town behaviour. that in and of itself is grounds for suspicion imo so i'd like to hear your thoughts about it so let me get everything straightened out, here: your read is that gary is town because he has no visible compatible partners? i'd like to see your thoughts on why everyone who might be a gary partner can't, and preferably in the span of one or two posts not none but i didn't think any gary wagoners were likely bussers and of the non-gary voters some of them are like sky who is my top tr and in general how often do you see such a fast wagon formation on scum from the outset of the day based in imo fairly weak reasoning without anyone opposing it; it was extremely unnatural to me i will reevaluate all of this at some point later in the phase but not rn also i think i asked you who you thought were the most likely gary partners yesterday; you might have but did you ever respond to that? nope, i didn't this is a standalone read based on wagons, but i'd wager at least one of the cw-voters would be a potential partner that is to say, wallape and articunight are prime choices for a partner. from interactions between gary and wallape i'm more willing to label gary + arti here as a team (the d2 votecount iso labels articunight as both abstaining and voting penguin, iso check shows the latter) irt fast wagon formation; the fact that the penguind wagon surfaced and gained immense traction out of nowhere to counter gary's wagon was, well, proof of an opposition to gary's wagon. it came late, though, so that's something to think about |
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Post by skyfigueroa on Jun 14, 2021 6:56:08 GMT
hey guys im back. i wanted to make a quirky wallpost last night about like 1 reason why each person in the playerlist could be scum but that was too ambitious and i blanked for a very long time.
anyway what's the case on cyan? after reading back i think his d2 showed natural progression still but that was bc his iso mostly showcases him going from gary lynch to kliff back to gary, all with logical reasoning, so if he is scum he probably just isn't interacting with partners. a scummy thing i noticed was that when kliff made the gary/cyan/PD wallpost he acknowledged its existence but never bothered talking about the contents or defending against the case on himself. but for the other ppl getting on cyan today i hope its not solely for the reason that u wanna avoid another simlpe anti-town lynch so u go for cyan to try ur luck like gary kinda said.
other than that after the quick skim read i feel kinda affirmed with my reads on quo (though it did make me remember that i don't recall the exact moment when i said i townleaned him, i dont even remember when i mentally did that either. but a more solid reason i have now is because a lot of his thought process seems to parallel mine alot at times in addition to helping the flow of discussion), gary, and kliff. chaos while still looking townie i don't feel as confident in my read on him for some weird reason? im now gonna read fort's iso because i have literally no clue abt what he could be at all.
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Post by Fort Colorcastle on Jun 14, 2021 7:17:06 GMT
Anyways, I must say that I think gary hasn't been as scummy as people claim he is, and I did my iso and concluded he was town, so I'm not quite comfortable with that wagon right now. I do wonder if scum!cyan actually just parks a vote on gary for 3 days though? That's a LOT of conviction in a read, especially with people debunking (what i saw as) the primary indecisiveness argument. Now, from what I can see, the main reason to lynch Gary is that... he's been a counterwagon for both days we lynched a town? That's.... an interesting argument to say the least xd. when all else fails, you go back to basics. and basics tell me gary's wagon has had two consecutive counters that were pushed primarily for anti-town behaviour. that in and of itself is grounds for suspicion imo so i'd like to hear your thoughts about it not none but i didn't think any gary wagoners were likely bussers and of the non-gary voters some of them are like sky who is my top tr and in general how often do you see such a fast wagon formation on scum from the outset of the day based in imo fairly weak reasoning without anyone opposing it; it was extremely unnatural to me i will reevaluate all of this at some point later in the phase but not rn also i think i asked you who you thought were the most likely gary partners yesterday; you might have but did you ever respond to that? nope, i didn't this is a standalone read based on wagons, but i'd wager at least one of the cw-voters would be a potential partner that is to say, wallape and articunight are prime choices for a partner. from interactions between gary and wallape i'm more willing to label gary + arti here as a team (the d2 votecount iso labels articunight as both abstaining and voting penguin, iso check shows the latter) irt fast wagon formation; the fact that the penguind wagon surfaced and gained immense traction out of nowhere to counter gary's wagon was, well, proof of an opposition to gary's wagon. it came late, though, so that's something to think about I think there's an important framing issue here for Day 1. On day 1 gary was one of two equal counterwagons to ddlc, penguin being the other. Quite frankly, I hadn't even realized gary's wagon had serious traction at the time and thought it was just between penguin and ddlc. This is important imo because gary being one of two equal counterwagons is a far cry from him being the primary wagon to which a counterwagon was later pushed on the basis of anti-town behavior, which is what happened day 2. Also, the penguin wagon day 2 did not come out of nowhere at all. Before my
shift 30 minutes before EoD1, penguin had 3 votes on him. Same as gary,
same as ddlc, meaning there were people who wanted him gone.
One thing to note is that if we lynch gary here we'd be lynching the third of the three day 1 wagons (lmao), which is probably a result of not having real nightkills to analyze? Actually, I think that's a funny if not particularly compelling reason to be lynching gary: "Is it really possible for ALL three counterwagons to have been town?"
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Post by skyfigueroa on Jun 14, 2021 7:50:28 GMT
FOS of fort, not necessarily for comments made reasonably, butter after other people began to sl me y-day he sorta just sheeped their reads and placed an fos on me, with no prior reads on me having been made by him you're right actually. i have no idea why i'm okay with voting you. i give you towncred for correctly labelling ddlc as a memer yesterday. I don't think scum has a need to do that, when it looked like town was happily going to vote out ddlc out for it
only possibility would be if scum was leading the ddlc vote and scum!gary needed to be a scum on the other side.
i remember now, gary being highkey indecisive on everything. okay yeah im still okay with that vote. sorry if my brainspace is just not here spending time with cute girl makes brain mushify i didnt see this at first this made me awwww very hard. other than that, these 2 lines almost feel townslippy to me cuz it shows actual flexibility towards his reads and as scum idk if he would want to weaken his case and potentially fuck up a mislynch and potentially look scummier in the process (in other words he wouldve taken a bit more time to formulate the line instead of outright saying i forgot why i sr you). he is also one of the main ppl joining me in the cause of going for lurkers. isnt that a scummy thing u guys might say? it depends but if u go for a lurker(as town) it means that u don't agree with the other main wagons and he has shown signs of that. but that is my read based on what fort has said. what about the things that were not explicit. gary and chaos at some point in the game had some fos/scum leans on fort. quo went through a few motions and gave him a tl. even then they were kinda like afterthoughts/not that in depth (makes sense since he wasnt focus of the day but still). there hasn't been a lot of attention on fort both postive or negative. this is mostly a knock on wallape and cyan ig. together ofc with the lurkers but he has already pushed a good number of the lurkers. also fort is clearly thorough with his posts but i feel like he's not very vocal with his reads. he either goes really in depth with someone (good thing) or multiquotes the thread and either agrees or disagrees with people (kinda bad thing cuz it feels like they go nowhere by the time of his next wallpost). ultimately my verdict is i find fortcolors to be a strong town lean. not as strong as quo and kliff, but i am putting him out of the null zone. it does feel like he's gone a bit under the radar even compared to the active ppl which is a bit concerning but idk not enough to knock the townie things i see from him. wallape cyan what do u guys think of him |
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Post by skyfigueroa on Jun 14, 2021 8:05:23 GMT
One thing to note is that if we lynch gary here we'd be lynching the third of the three day 1 wagons (lmao), which is probably a result of not having real nightkills to analyze? Actually, I think that's a funny if not particularly compelling reason to be lynching gary: "Is it really possible for ALL three counterwagons to have been town?" Voted:Votee
(hammer 7)
Ddlcfan69 (4):Cyan Talon, Wallape,Articuknight,Fortcolors
Gary the Savage (3):Chaostrodon,Vertigo,Ddlcfan69
PenguinD (2):Kliff,Quojova
Wallape (1):Gary the Savage
Vertigo (1):skyfigureroa
Not Voting (2):Saltiestcactus23,PenguinD
might be biased bc i tr gary at this point but if 1 of the 3 cws is scum then gary would've shifted to one of the other sooner imo. bc im p sure this vote was 3-3-3 until the last hour of d1 because u shifted to ddlc. it seems too up in the air for gary to be chilling. ofc u can give ur own interpretation of it tho it might be different. personally the ddlc wagon has the most ppl i was null on/sled so ill try and take a look at that l8r. for now im taking a break and playing some aa. at the same time scum has no reason to be on the same wagon together cuz none of the wagons r scum (based on my reads) so i think it's more likely they r spread out |
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Post by wallape on Jun 14, 2021 9:34:41 GMT
im ngl i haven't noticed fort at all... everything they say seems alright but nothing in it stands out to me and makes me go "yeah he's town" but that just might be not reading too much. I might reread later on but rn im a bit busy with exam prep so can't :x
also for all of the people saying gary is town - I want people to counter the arguments put forth other than just saying "the reasoning is bad/lackluster". Can someone explain to me how a townie goes through the process of "x is probably bussing y, so let me vote y because x is townier!"
Also FOS on Kliff bc his reads change from day to day and his replies to all of my qs are rather vague... his day 1 peng read disappeared day 2 and turned to vote on Gary, who's vote progression seemed artificial. Now, on D3, his Gary read seems to have disappeared... it seems like he has an agenda that he's deciding at night bc these change in reads do not seem natural to me. People who tr kliff could you explain to me why kliff is town? Aside from his analysis on cyan/peng/gary team which i liked atp, i really don't see much
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Post by chaostrodon on Jun 14, 2021 10:07:18 GMT
so let me get everything straightened out, here: your read is that gary is town because he has no visible compatible partners? i'd like to see your thoughts on why everyone who might be a gary partner can't, and preferably in the span of one or two posts not none but i didn't think any gary wagoners were likely bussers and of the non-gary voters some of them are like sky who is my top tr and in general how often do you see such a fast wagon formation on scum from the outset of the day based in imo fairly weak reasoning without anyone opposing it; it was extremely unnatural to me
i will reevaluate all of this at some point later in the phase but not rn also i think i asked you who you thought were the most likely gary partners yesterday; you might have but did you ever respond to that?  ?? You called me a scumlean for saying this same shit yesterday. While that is true , think about all the votes on Penguin at the end of the day yesterday, a lurker slot that would give no info and was town from voting history. The idea that Penguin wagon gained traction due to scum pushing a cw to Gary is feasible imo. |
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