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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:00:46 GMT
Narwhal wasn't the kill I expected, but oh well.
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:03:18 GMT
LOL that’s an interesting kill
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:04:27 GMT
Mafia dieing D1 is always a plus, basically I wanna analyze the trains, also I am pretty confident that the counter train has at least 1 mafia on it. I wanna say PKQ not dieing despite them being the counter train to mafia screams they're scum, but its all NKA Wifom BS. DD and Yash Why were you on PKQ? |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:04:46 GMT
What changes with NK: ignore my scum-lean on narwhal lol, I admit this doesn't make me look great but I am honestly quite surprised.
Everything that follows this is prewritten.
I think a bus is unlikely from any player that ended up on the trem wagon.
Tbz and scept were on the wagon super early, and throughout EoD they continually pushed for a trem chop over pkq and ayia. Hard to see either of these being busses.
Litt switched off after pkq’s claim, but I don’t see that being plausible from a mafia perspective. There was 4 minutes left after pkq claimed, which is a small enough a period of time that you could reasonably just be quiet and not change your vote (basically what ddw and yash did actually), hoping for a pkq mischop. I think this line of reasoning applies to ayia and me as well.
It doesn’t really make sense for Ayia to be partners with trem either, because he posted a whole case on trem and clearly did not mind trem dying. Even if he preferred pkq, he switched in the end. After going through trem connections I am even more confident this is not a bus.
I’m going to try to evaluate myself from a third-person perspective but obviously I know I didn’t bus trem. I initially said “he claimed in the last 4 minutes, no way I'm shifting off” about pkq because I was expecting a maf who knew they were going to die to fakeclaim at the last second, so my reaction was an impulsive kind of confirmation bias. Thankfully I did realize soon enough that shifting off was clearly the play as town due to the risk/reward involved in actually chopping pkq after the claim. I think my play lends itself unlikely for a bus because I was the vote that changed the plur, although I didn’t actually realize that at the time of the switch.
Pkq is town and I think discussing this slot further might actually be anti-town so I’m not going to say any more on that. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the NK tho so this section might be irrelevant.
With this I think we have a pretty solid towncore atm.
I would like to hear yash and ddw’s side of the story. I think each of them still has a good chance of being town but mysteriously disappearing after the pkq claim and not shifting is exactly the play I would go for if I was maf, opportunistically hoping for a bg kill and to preserve my teammate. Also, what’s going on with yash liking all posts switching to trem immediately after the flip? Not saying it’s necessarily scummy but it is a bit… strange.
In terms of other trem connections there were a few but not too many that I could find that weren’t with those that were already on the wagon. He did “gutread” yash as town but he also read me as town for a pretty weak reason so I don’t think it’s very AI. He lynched FJ, and it doesn’t seem like a bus to me, so I’m fairly strongly leaning town on FJ (although traitor is possible I guess). Chad pushed on trem for lurking once but I can’t confidently clear him from that, because no pressure was really applied off of it. Narwhal actually did apply a tiny bit of pressure on trem but he also applied pressure on so many other people in the game with his two wallposts, so I don’t think this clears him either. Narwhal’s last post on trem really pings me, will probably post more about this later but possibly not tonight depending on the time I have.
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:05:39 GMT
hopeful but doubtful that we got a track
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 4:05:58 GMT
reiterating bg should claim if you're not pkq and go 1 for 1
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 4:06:04 GMT
going to say Scept is close to conf town here
Lynch Litt
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:07:14 GMT
Did PKQ claim? I missed it.
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:08:13 GMT
Did PKQ claim? I missed it. he claimed BG eod1 |
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:08:44 GMT
quojovaIf their was a buss its probably in between you, Ayia, or lift. Though, like I said before the mafia are probably off train and the traitor may be the busser for all we know or the traitor may be on pkq.
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:09:08 GMT
My read on Litt will remain neutral for now cause I honestly dfk wrt him I’ll figure it out I promise
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:09:35 GMT
Did PKQ claim? I missed it. he claimed BG eod1 Why does narwhal die over the BG, thats interesting to say the least. |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 4:10:03 GMT
quojova If their was a buss its probably in between you, Ayia, or lift. Though, like I said before the mafia are probably off train and the traitor may be the busser for all we know or the traitor may be on pkq. I don't follow the logic here |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:10:21 GMT
going to say Scept is close to conf town here Lynch Littnaked vote??? I am going to have a hard time buying into any wagon for a player that voted for trem if the argument for it doesn't start with something like "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here", preferably also followed by why this is not only possible but probable. |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 4:10:56 GMT
Why does narwhal die over the BG, thats interesting to say the least. I assume it's either because PKQ is scum or scum feared PKQ was gambiting |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:11:09 GMT
quojova If their was a buss its probably in between you, Ayia, or lift. Though, like I said before the mafia are probably off train and the traitor may be the busser for all we know or the traitor may be on pkq. I don't follow the logic here I don't follow this either, the traitor knows their partners so why does it make them more likely to bus? |
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:11:28 GMT
Why does narwhal die over the BG, thats interesting to say the least. scum bait maybe, imo we still leave PKQ alone for now |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 4:12:05 GMT
going to say Scept is close to conf town here Lynch Littnaked vote??? I am going to have a hard time buying into any wagon for a player that voted for trem if the argument for it doesn't start with something like "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here", preferably also followed by why this is not only possible but probable. I said I'd press Litt today if PKQ was town (which he likely is at this point) for the whole on-off-on thing we haven't gotten a lot of actual content from Litt and I want pressure here |
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:12:06 GMT
although it was kinda sus like... PKQ said he was going to idle eod, so theoretically he wouldn’t be able to be cleared by a tracker
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:12:20 GMT
If there is a CC I hope we get it soon otherwise just leave PKQ be
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:13:25 GMT
Why does narwhal die over the BG, thats interesting to say the least. I assume it's either because PKQ is scum or scum feared PKQ was gambiting I believe its just WIFOM BS and I don't care to look into it yet. My logic is that the mafia wouldn't need to bus without actual reasoning, so if there is a person on trem that had questionble reasoning its possible they're mafia. The one that can blend in the most, thought, is the traitor which is why its more likely they were on trem. |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:14:00 GMT
Why does narwhal die over the BG, thats interesting to say the least. I assume it's either because PKQ is scum or scum feared PKQ was gambiting If pkq is scum he is so screwed. Like if a tracker was on him and they saw him not visit or visit narwhal we chop him (or maybe we let them live I haven't fully worked out the mechanics here yet). If a real bg ccs we keep both of them alive, and maf can't kill our bg without outing their fake claim and eventually our bg will trade 1 for 1. |
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:14:26 GMT
VOTE STAR
(This is a vote on myo idk how else to do it)
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:15:31 GMT
o
VOTE DRAGON DRIFTAWAY
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:17:06 GMT
There is no way PKQ is fake claiming because why feel the need to fake claim if PKQ is scum with trem, in a way him dieing would make PKQ counter train look really good the claim wouldn't even be needed. It just be suicide at that point.
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