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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:17:53 GMT
although it was kinda sus like... PKQ said he was going to idle eod, so theoretically he wouldn’t be able to be cleared by a tracker If pkq claims he idled... he is so scum LMAO. That said even if he basically outs himself by doing that I still feel like we let him live because we get so much by doing so. I'm still leaning that he's actually bg, I don't get why he would invoke the cfd if it was just to have his partner nailed instead of him. |
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 4:18:26 GMT
I assume it's either because PKQ is scum or scum feared PKQ was gambiting I believe its just WIFOM BS and I don't care to look into it yet. My logic is that the mafia wouldn't need to bus without actual reasoning, so if there is a person on trem that had questionble reasoning its possible they're mafia. The one that can blend in the most, thought, is the traitor which is why its more likely they were on trem. traitor whiteflags after scum dies it feels unlikely to put your team at a higher chance of mechanically losing to tracks if another scum dies, it's possible to pseudo clear 2 people per night based on tracker actions and just seal the win |
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:20:08 GMT
I probably should ask, but what exactly is the white flag traitor? I know what a traitor is obviously but what does the white flag mean?
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:20:13 GMT
naked vote??? I am going to have a hard time buying into any wagon for a player that voted for trem if the argument for it doesn't start with something like "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here", preferably also followed by why this is not only possible but probable. I said I'd press Litt today if PKQ was town (which he likely is at this point) for the whole on-off-on thing we haven't gotten a lot of actual content from Litt and I want pressure here What is this on-off-on thing?? I think any light srs you had on him are completely overshadowed by how he actually swapped onto trem. I still want an argument that starts with "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here" and a further explanation on why that's likely |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:20:45 GMT
I probably should ask, but what exactly is the white flag traitor? I know what a traitor is obviously but what does the white flag mean? If all 3 mafia goons die, even if the traitor is alive the game instantly ends in a town win |
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Post by chad on Jun 23, 2020 4:22:55 GMT
I probably should ask, but what exactly is the white flag traitor? I know what a traitor is obviously but what does the white flag mean? If all 3 mafia goons die, even if the traitor is alive the game instantly ends in a town win Ok, nevermind. I doubt a white flag traitor ever busses. Ignore, my silly theory. |
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 4:24:32 GMT
I’ll give my reasoning on myo in a bit, but ye for now I agree PKQ is probably town and even if he isn’t I wanna ignore his slot today
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:26:40 GMT
I stand by my stance that a bus is extremely unlikely on any of the 6 trem voters, but what I think could be an actually useful discussion is the relatively strong way that trem pushed on fj. I made my stance on this pretty clear already but after looking back at those posts yourselves what do you guys think about the chances of fj being mafia goon? (ignore traitor possibilities for now)
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:31:56 GMT
NK analysis is always going to be pretty weak and should never be the entirety of a case, but from the narwhal kill I get the sense that the maf team is pretty inexperienced? Like unless something he did screamed "IM A SOFTING PR COME AND GET ME" I don't see how an experienced maf can make that kill.
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 4:32:29 GMT
naked vote??? I am going to have a hard time buying into any wagon for a player that voted for trem if the argument for it doesn't start with something like "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here", preferably also followed by why this is not only possible but probable. I said I'd press Litt today if PKQ was town (which he likely is at this point) for the whole on-off-on thing we haven't gotten a lot of actual content from Litt and I want pressure here you say on off thing when you basically did the same thing with switching to pkq off trem my intention for the bolded unlynch on pkq was to break wagon traction because it felt like a cw but pkq made some awful statements so i got back on. i was either planning to lynch you or trem at that point which would've ended day with me lynching trem since you had no wagon that late into the day |
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 4:34:08 GMT
lynch foreverjokerI'll try and answer some questions in the next 2-3 hours I dont see any answers or much else is enough reason for me to believe fj is town (pursued easy lynch won't be a bus) |
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 4:34:42 GMT
or fj is not mafia goon, to be more specific
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:38:00 GMT
how do I iso on forums? I want to check if anything narwhal said could have possibly taken as a soft
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 4:38:24 GMT
*possibly been taken
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Post by yashgreninja on Jun 23, 2020 4:47:54 GMT
That's an interesting kill. Anyways, to update you all on my stance at EOD1 since I never posted after PKQ claimed BG: Mafia dieing D1 is always a plus, basically I wanna analyze the trains, also I am pretty confident that the counter train has at least 1 mafia on it. I wanna say PKQ not dieing despite them being the counter train to mafia screams they're scum, but its all NKA Wifom BS. DD and Yash Why were you on PKQ? I was about to unlynch and type out this reasoning for why lynching Trem was better on my count since PKQ did claim BG but I didn't have enough time to submit so my lynch stayed on PKQ. Apparently you can't even ask FTF to change votes afterwards (which makes sense tbh, would be unfair otherwise). Good news is that Trem was Mafia and got lynched d1 + my lynch on PKQ wasn't actually too harmful in the end. I liked all of the EOD1 switches back to Trem in the respective replies b/c that was what I was gonna do as well, and then deadline messed that up. Assuming there's no CC we're in a better position knowing PKQ is conf town, but unfortunately I see Mafia probably killing PKQ soon just to get the clear out of the way Now that PKQ is town for now, I'm going to lynch ZoL for reasons from D1 that still stand. By the end of this post this might change if I see something more interesting. Again, I'm periodically responding to what I see all at once so yeah. What changes with NK: ignore my scum-lean on narwhal lol, I admit this doesn't make me look great but I am honestly quite surprised. Everything that follows this is prewritten. I think a bus is unlikely from any player that ended up on the trem wagon. Tbz and scept were on the wagon super early, and throughout EoD they continually pushed for a trem chop over pkq and ayia. Hard to see either of these being busses. Litt switched off after pkq’s claim, but I don’t see that being plausible from a mafia perspective. There was 4 minutes left after pkq claimed, which is a small enough a period of time that you could reasonably just be quiet and not change your vote (basically what ddw and yash did actually), hoping for a pkq mischop. I think this line of reasoning applies to ayia and me as well. It doesn’t really make sense for Ayia to be partners with trem either, because he posted a whole case on trem and clearly did not mind trem dying. Even if he preferred pkq, he switched in the end. After going through trem connections I am even more confident this is not a bus. I’m going to try to evaluate myself from a third-person perspective but obviously I know I didn’t bus trem. I initially said “he claimed in the last 4 minutes, no way I'm shifting off” about pkq because I was expecting a maf who knew they were going to die to fakeclaim at the last second, so my reaction was an impulsive kind of confirmation bias. Thankfully I did realize soon enough that shifting off was clearly the play as town due to the risk/reward involved in actually chopping pkq after the claim. I think my play lends itself unlikely for a bus because I was the vote that changed the plur, although I didn’t actually realize that at the time of the switch. Pkq is town and I think discussing this slot further might actually be anti-town so I’m not going to say any more on that. Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the NK tho so this section might be irrelevant. With this I think we have a pretty solid towncore atm. I would like to hear yash and ddw’s side of the story. I think each of them still has a good chance of being town but mysteriously disappearing after the pkq claim and not shifting is exactly the play I would go for if I was maf, opportunistically hoping for a bg kill and to preserve my teammate. Also, what’s going on with yash liking all posts switching to trem immediately after the flip? Not saying it’s necessarily scummy but it is a bit… strange. In terms of other trem connections there were a few but not too many that I could find that weren’t with those that were already on the wagon. He did “gutread” yash as town but he also read me as town for a pretty weak reason so I don’t think it’s very AI. He lynched FJ, and it doesn’t seem like a bus to me, so I’m fairly strongly leaning town on FJ (although traitor is possible I guess). Chad pushed on trem for lurking once but I can’t confidently clear him from that, because no pressure was really applied off of it. Narwhal actually did apply a tiny bit of pressure on trem but he also applied pressure on so many other people in the game with his two wallposts, so I don’t think this clears him either. Narwhal’s last post on trem really pings me, will probably post more about this later but possibly not tonight depending on the time I have. Mentioned earlier when responding to Chad how do I iso on forums? I want to check if anything narwhal said could have possibly taken as a soft It's probably not the same style but I assume you can just search for users on the respective game thread and it'll show all of their messages in the thread so far. I could be wrong though Post-ED2 stuff
Since none of the messages I saw convinced me of a better lynch than in comparison to ZoL, I'm gonna stay on ZoL for now. The PKQ WIFOM/possible Mafia thing is interesting to say the least, and it's still very possible but like TBZ said, if there hasn't been any CCs then it's best to leave him alone for now. The fact that PKQ didn't die is what is making me more suspicious about the bodyguard claim because naturally, wouldn't mafia want to kill the bodyguard? (Considering BG is a free confirm/clear + confirm town, it's in their best interest to kill them, right?) Or am I missing something? Anyways, like I said I'm staying on ZoL for now, and I'm going to bed. I'll do some more digging up on other people since ZoL is contentless and I'd like to have more solid reads tomorrow  gn everyone |
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Post by pkq on Jun 23, 2020 5:23:08 GMT
Wow, how am I fucking alive. Didn't see this coming. I will be looking at this game later because it time for to go to sleep.
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 5:38:24 GMT
Last post before I hit the sack. I looked through narwhal's iso with as open a mind as I could and saw nothing that seemed like it could be a soft. The closest thing I saw was "maybe I'll check out the role list or something since apparently there's a traitor or something" because I guess he referenced the role list? But this is a huge stretch and this "mafia thought he softed" idea seems to be a dead end. I have no idea why he was killed.
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myo!
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:17:00 GMT
Mafia dieing D1 is always a plus, basically I wanna analyze the trains, also I am pretty confident that the counter train has at least 1 mafia on it. I wanna say PKQ not dieing despite them being the counter train to mafia screams they're scum, but its all NKA Wifom BS. DD and Yash Why were you on PKQ? ugh it's 2 am why am i awake so this is a pretty lame excuse but i wasn't actually checking the thread when pkq claimed bg i had parked on pkq and just started doing other shit because he just looked dumb i had literally no reason to stay on him, this was just an out of game error. |
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myo!
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:19:21 GMT
and ik it feels like a total fucking copout but yeah.
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myo!
Watcher
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:21:21 GMT
also to quo: you'll note I disappeared before he claimed. not after. I had no clue he claimed until I rechecked the thread after deadline.
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myo!
Watcher
~i keep it juicy juicy, i eat that lunch~
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:29:04 GMT
although it was kinda sus like... PKQ said he was going to idle eod, so theoretically he wouldn’t be able to be cleared by a tracker If pkq claims he idled... he is so scum LMAO. That said even if he basically outs himself by doing that I still feel like we let him live because we get so much by doing so. I'm still leaning that he's actually bg, I don't get why he would invoke the cfd if it was just to have his partner nailed instead of him. even though I'm on you that PKQ is definitely bg, this sounds like something he'd do lmaoo if you haven't figured it out already, he's idling because he's afraid of dying since he thinks he's the best player to grace the site since 2012 |
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myo!
Watcher
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:30:57 GMT
I’ll give my reasoning on myo in a bit, but ye for now I agree PKQ is probably town and even if he isn’t I wanna ignore his slot today maaan your reasoning is that i didn't get of pkq and we all know it. unless you're going to regurgitate the shit that ayia put out, which everyone knows how that went. |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 6:31:54 GMT
I said I'd press Litt today if PKQ was town (which he likely is at this point) for the whole on-off-on thing we haven't gotten a lot of actual content from Litt and I want pressure here What is this on-off-on thing?? I think any light srs you had on him are completely overshadowed by how he actually swapped onto trem. I still want an argument that starts with "this is the mafia rationale behind bussing here" and a further explanation on why that's likely No one should be townread for switching onto Trem, period Trem was in the grave one scum shifting did not do anything in the long run, Trem ended ahead by 3 lynches The on-off-on thing was in reference to Litt shifting on and off of PKQ seemingly reasonlessly (also threatening to lynch me for like,,, no reason) |
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myo!
Watcher
~i keep it juicy juicy, i eat that lunch~
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 6:33:36 GMT
and also, the sadwhal kill confuses me just as much as it does the rest of you.
sadwhal may have made a couple walls of text, but even so I don't think that has any reason to be prioritized over the bg claim? like
i don't understand it at all
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 6:34:35 GMT
I’ll give my reasoning on myo in a bit, but ye for now I agree PKQ is probably town and even if he isn’t I wanna ignore his slot today maaan your reasoning is that i didn't get of pkq and we all know it. unless you're going to regurgitate the shit that ayia put out, which everyone knows how that went. even if you disagree with the reasoning, the reasoning is not invalid reasoning isn't negated just because you don't like it |
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gn everyone
