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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 15:22:32 GMT
the plurshift unlike what quojava said felt to me like ayia wanted to be in the maj vote by the end of the day and it would look bad if he wasn't thats why I see ayia shifting; fos quqojava for that train of logic because although none of it felt like too much of a bus, it felt like a lazy attempt to be in the majority on a scum lynch It's hard to get the sense for this when you weren't actually at the EoD, but things were moving REALLY fast. The post timers show 1 minute between my vote and ayia's, but in reality I bet it was more like 25 seconds if you account for more precise numbers. Given the other text in the Ayia post, I actually think its downright unfeasible for ayia to have seen my shift post and created his (I would like to get confirmation on Ayia about this), but either way ayia was seriously pushing on trem for other parts of the day in ways that don't make sense as a bus, like the wallpost. |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 15:28:24 GMT
the plurshift unlike what quojava said felt to me like ayia wanted to be in the maj vote by the end of the day and it would look bad if he wasn't thats why I see ayia shifting; fos quqojava for that train of logic because although none of it felt like too much of a bus, it felt like a lazy attempt to be in the majority on a scum lynch It's hard to get the sense for this when you weren't actually at the EoD, but things were moving REALLY fast. The post timers show 1 minute between my vote and ayia's, but in reality I bet it was more like 25 seconds if you account for more precise numbers. Given the other text in the Ayia post, I actually think its downright unfeasible for ayia to have seen my shift post and created his (I would like to get confirmation on Ayia about this), but either way ayia was seriously pushing on trem for other parts of the day in ways that don't make sense as a bus, like the wallpost. and it's not even like we're completely hounding yash and ddw for not switching either, it's more about what came after. I can kind of buy into yash's excuse, given that he was already posting longer posts even with EoD quickly approaching. Ddw is getting serious pressure atm because of his follow-up at the start of the day today, not solely because of how he didn't switch. So really the trade-off a maf would have to make to bus here is "get some pressure added tomorrow which with a good follow-up can largely dispelled" or "kill my partner instead of the bg" How does maf make that trade? |
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myo!
Watcher
~i keep it juicy juicy, i eat that lunch~
Posts: 124
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 15:29:54 GMT
bro it was literally not even a minute after your last post that he claimed bg I wanna lynch him so badly for that poor excuse. yes it is a poor excuse, except for the fact that it actually happened. but cool okay thanks for understanding mhm |
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myo!
Watcher
~i keep it juicy juicy, i eat that lunch~
Posts: 124
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Post by myo! on Jun 23, 2020 15:32:07 GMT
I wanna lynch him so badly for that poor excuse. yes it is a poor excuse, except for the fact that it actually happened. but cool okay thanks for understanding mhm if I really wanted to I could've said something more in depth like yash did that'd cover my ass better, but I'd rather just be up-front and honest, and frankly the way people's opinions of me change because I wanted to be honest is really fun. well, whatever. |
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 15:41:39 GMT
It's hard to get the sense for this when you weren't actually at the EoD, but things were moving REALLY fast. The post timers show 1 minute between my vote and ayia's, but in reality I bet it was more like 25 seconds if you account for more precise numbers. Given the other text in the Ayia post, I actually think its downright unfeasible for ayia to have seen my shift post and created his (I would like to get confirmation on Ayia about this), but either way ayia was seriously pushing on trem for other parts of the day in ways that don't make sense as a bus, like the wallpost. and it's not even like we're completely hounding yash and ddw for not switching either, it's more about what came after. I can kind of buy into yash's excuse, given that he was already posting longer posts even with EoD quickly approaching. Ddw is getting serious pressure atm because of his follow-up at the start of the day today, not solely because of how he didn't switch. So really the trade-off a maf would have to make to bus here is "get some pressure added tomorrow which with a good follow-up can largely dispelled" or "kill my partner instead of the bg" How does maf make that trade?The last line here in blue is not rhetorical, I actually want you to answer this question lieb |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 16:44:05 GMT
No one should be townread for switching onto Trem, period Trem was in the grave one scum shifting did not do anything in the long run, Trem ended ahead by 3 lynches The on-off-on thing was in reference to Litt shifting on and off of PKQ seemingly reasonlessly (also threatening to lynch me for like,,, no reason) says the person with the only meaningless shift (trem was dead before your shift but not till quo's lynch) the effective point is that scum could blind eye the claim because of how close it was to dl so shifting is pro town, so reasoning behind not tring them should be treated as 'why would scum bus trem there' and you not recognising that as a fact of the case is harmful for your reads going to say step back reassess because game gets locked down after hitting one more goon, reasonable assumption is to get an off wagon goon even if it's a bus it's heavily unlikely for it to be a full scum bus because of how dynamic lynches were, especially with traitor being pro-mafia in lynch count I guess that's a fair point but I still don't think shifting off is inherently townie; it's just as easily scum shifting off to get towncred with an easy kill on the bodyguard at night My read on you is more about your shiftiness in terms of lynches yesterday and also the fact that you slipped under the radar yesterday. The early lynch is to prevent you from falling under the radar again while also demonstrating my suspicion On that note, can I have your reads? |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 16:53:32 GMT
btw we have 17 pages against their 16, so we have beaten the cats in activity. im proud. also, is hypo a good idea rn? it doesn't clear anyone, so it will just out our prs. or is there anything else thatchypo will do that I'm missing? I just ran the numbers and there's a 1/(num of players) chance that the inspection was actually the other tracker tracking the dead body (assuming random actions) which is 1/14 on night 1. with some accuracy in terms of reads, in practice the probability of a false positive is actually even lower than that In terms of should we hypo, I think I'd lean no just because it allows mafia to poe who's tracker whereas the only advantage is that if one of the real trackers tracks someone who later flips mafia then the track of the other tracker is actually cleared wait that's not even true because of traitor nvm that only works if there's no traitor yes hypo is useless |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 16:58:25 GMT
the plurshift unlike what quojava said felt to me like ayia wanted to be in the maj vote by the end of the day and it would look bad if he wasn't thats why I see ayia shifting; fos quqojava for that train of logic because although none of it felt like too much of a bus, it felt like a lazy attempt to be in the majority on a scum lynch while I would love to say I was scum who knew telepathically that other people would shift while I was typing my shift vote and I shifted just to get maj is flattering, but it all happened so fast that I thought my vote actually mattered keep in mind that the last 2 pages happened like 5 minutes to DL this is like textbook tunnel vision btw, you're looking at my actions at the end of d1 and making assumptions to conform those actions around your scumread of me |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 16:59:33 GMT
the plurshift unlike what quojava said felt to me like ayia wanted to be in the maj vote by the end of the day and it would look bad if he wasn't thats why I see ayia shifting; fos quqojava for that train of logic because although none of it felt like too much of a bus, it felt like a lazy attempt to be in the majority on a scum lynch It's hard to get the sense for this when you weren't actually at the EoD, but things were moving REALLY fast. The post timers show 1 minute between my vote and ayia's, but in reality I bet it was more like 25 seconds if you account for more precise numbers. Given the other text in the Ayia post, I actually think its downright unfeasible for ayia to have seen my shift post and created his (I would like to get confirmation on Ayia about this), but either way ayia was seriously pushing on trem for other parts of the day in ways that don't make sense as a bus, like the wallpost. omg our minds yes this |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 17:05:13 GMT
I said I'd press Litt today if PKQ was town (which he likely is at this point) for the whole on-off-on thing we haven't gotten a lot of actual content from Litt and I want pressure here what on-off thing?? you were on-off with te pkq-trem lych as well? wasn't referring to the shift, was referring to the PKQ vote-unvote-vote thing |
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 17:08:44 GMT
the plurshift unlike what quojava said felt to me like ayia wanted to be in the maj vote by the end of the day and it would look bad if he wasn't thats why I see ayia shifting; fos quqojava for that train of logic because although none of it felt like too much of a bus, it felt like a lazy attempt to be in the majority on a scum lynch you're ignoring a whole day of casing trem atleast treat it with thoughtful reasoning rather than randomly throwing this half assed reason out. |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 17:17:02 GMT
It pains me that
- the coal -> bgb slot has not spoken once
- ZOL memed at beginning of D1 but hasn't spoken otherwise
- FJ came on throughout D1 and said he was willing to answer questions but then has never stayed long enough to answer them
- Lieb has come on, put out some non-sensical tunnely fluff and then left
If Litt gives me some juicy takes that I like I might switch to ZOL/lieb because this number of inacs makes the game unwinnable for town if they're not lynched, there's too easily a scum in that pool
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Post by Schrodinger on Jun 23, 2020 17:17:54 GMT
btw we have 17 pages against their 16, so we have beaten the cats in activity. im proud. also, is hypo a good idea rn? it doesn't clear anyone, so it will just out our prs. or is there anything else thatchypo will do that I'm missing? I just ran the numbers and there's a 1/(num of players) chance that the inspection was actually the other tracker tracking the dead body (assuming random actions) which is 1/14 on night 1. with some accuracy in terms of reads, in practice the probability of a false positive is actually even lower than that In terms of should we hypo, I think I'd lean no just because it allows mafia to poe who's tracker whereas the only advantage is that if one of the real trackers tracks someone who later flips mafia then the track of the other tracker is actually cleared wait that's not even true because of traitor nvm that only works if there's no traitor yes hypo is useless its actually 1/14(tracker1 taretting ded)*1/14(tracker 2 targetting tracker1)*2 I think which is really low but yea, hypo is pointless and tracker should and only claim if they find bad guy. |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 17:19:09 GMT
maaan your reasoning is that i didn't get of pkq and we all know it. unless you're going to regurgitate the shit that ayia put out, which everyone knows how that went. your defense doesn’t sit well, and you’re just trying to put words in my mouth that dont exist lmao. I don’t even look at VCs when making reads Putting words in other people's mouths that don't exist is an Arctina specialty this game |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 17:22:16 GMT
tracker should just claim if they get someone targeting the dead bodyI just ran the numbers and there's a 1/(num of players) chance that the inspection was actually the other tracker tracking the dead body (assuming random actions) which is 1/14 on night 1. with some accuracy in terms of reads, in practice the probability of a false positive is actually even lower than that In terms of should we hypo, I think I'd lean no just because it allows mafia to poe who's tracker whereas the only advantage is that if one of the real trackers tracks someone who later flips mafia then the track of the other tracker is actually cleared wait that's not even true because of traitor nvm that only works if there's no traitor yes hypo is useless its actually 1/14(tracker1 taretting ded)*1/14(tracker 2 targetting tracker1)*2 I think which is really low but yea, hypo is pointless and tracker should and only claim if they find bad guy. The number you should be looking for is the probably that the target is tracker given that the target targeted the dead body (you are the tracker) You ignored the "given" and just went straight for the probability that a tracker targeted the other tracker who tracked the dead body which is a different (and less important) statistic |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 17:25:58 GMT
Also your numbers should be 1/13*1/13*2 because trackers cant track themselves
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Post by quojova on Jun 23, 2020 18:00:54 GMT
says the person with the only meaningless shift (trem was dead before your shift but not till quo's lynch) the effective point is that scum could blind eye the claim because of how close it was to dl so shifting is pro town, so reasoning behind not tring them should be treated as 'why would scum bus trem there' and you not recognising that as a fact of the case is harmful for your reads going to say step back reassess because game gets locked down after hitting one more goon, reasonable assumption is to get an off wagon goon even if it's a bus it's heavily unlikely for it to be a full scum bus because of how dynamic lynches were, especially with traitor being pro-mafia in lynch count I guess that's a fair point but I still don't think shifting off is inherently townie; it's just as easily scum shifting off to get towncred with an easy kill on the bodyguard at night My read on you is more about your shiftiness in terms of lynches yesterday and also the fact that you slipped under the radar yesterday. The early lynch is to prevent you from falling under the radar again while also demonstrating my suspicion On that note, can I have your reads? This conversation has gone on for a while now but I have to object to this. How is it "just as easily scum" when the price a maf has to pay for this shift is the pretty high possibility that their vote will kill their partner instead of a townie? Like I mentioned earlier, on the other hand the consequences for not shifting ended up being pretty tame (at least that's how it looks now). Every voter on the trem wagon had to have voted with the understanding that their individual actions would have a good chance of getting trem actually chopped. That does not come from a maf mentality. |
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Post by yashgreninja on Jun 23, 2020 18:12:17 GMT
yashgreninja
Well I mean people weren't going to just sit on a bodyguard claim lol, why do you think PKQ wasn't killed tonight? If you were around for EOD I find it hard to believe you didn't have time to swap but thats angleshooting so oh well. I was asking why MAFIA didn’t kill PKQ at NIGHT since he claimed Bodyguard, I’m not questioning why we didn’t stay on him after the BG claim. Idk if you saw my other D2 post but I literally said my intent was to switch off of PKQ but as I was typing my post to switch my lynch off of him, the thread closed because of DL so I couldn’t submit |
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Post by yashgreninja on Jun 23, 2020 18:13:10 GMT
I also just found out Cats were able to lynch Mafia D1 which is pretty cool. I’ll do more analysis and typing in a bit, I just woke up super late and I have to work out and eat stuff. See you all in around 2 hours
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Post by bluegummybear on Jun 23, 2020 18:23:07 GMT
heyo
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 19:23:23 GMT
says the person with the only meaningless shift (trem was dead before your shift but not till quo's lynch) the effective point is that scum could blind eye the claim because of how close it was to dl so shifting is pro town, so reasoning behind not tring them should be treated as 'why would scum bus trem there' and you not recognising that as a fact of the case is harmful for your reads going to say step back reassess because game gets locked down after hitting one more goon, reasonable assumption is to get an off wagon goon even if it's a bus it's heavily unlikely for it to be a full scum bus because of how dynamic lynches were, especially with traitor being pro-mafia in lynch count I guess that's a fair point but I still don't think shifting off is inherently townie; it's just as easily scum shifting off to get towncred with an easy kill on the bodyguard at night My read on you is more about your shiftiness in terms of lynches yesterday and also the fact that you slipped under the radar yesterday. The early lynch is to prevent you from falling under the radar again while also demonstrating my suspicion On that note, can I have your reads? atm i have a town pool, not a scum pool if i had a solid reason to sr someone I'd lynch and push but it's unfortunately not the case. reserved early day for decisive softs/lynches like results which haven't happened so I'm unsure |
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Post by litteleven on Jun 23, 2020 19:23:48 GMT
lynch zestoflife
easy lynch but i tr most of the talking players, which along with a relative (non goon) tr for arc/fj means I'm comfortable with lynching this slot to respond
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 19:57:51 GMT
I guess that's a fair point but I still don't think shifting off is inherently townie; it's just as easily scum shifting off to get towncred with an easy kill on the bodyguard at night My read on you is more about your shiftiness in terms of lynches yesterday and also the fact that you slipped under the radar yesterday. The early lynch is to prevent you from falling under the radar again while also demonstrating my suspicion On that note, can I have your reads? This conversation has gone on for a while now but I have to object to this. How is it "just as easily scum" when the price a maf has to pay for this shift is the pretty high possibility that their vote will kill their partner instead of a townie? Like I mentioned earlier, on the other hand the consequences for not shifting ended up being pretty tame (at least that's how it looks now). Every voter on the trem wagon had to have voted with the understanding that their individual actions would have a good chance of getting trem actually chopped. That does not come from a maf mentality. Yeah, I’m seeing what you’re saying a bit more clearly, and I’m starting to agree tbh I just don’t want anyone to completely close out the idea of anyone on that wagon being scum because that’s an incredibly dangerous mentality |
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Post by ayia on Jun 23, 2020 20:02:57 GMT
I guess that's a fair point but I still don't think shifting off is inherently townie; it's just as easily scum shifting off to get towncred with an easy kill on the bodyguard at night My read on you is more about your shiftiness in terms of lynches yesterday and also the fact that you slipped under the radar yesterday. The early lynch is to prevent you from falling under the radar again while also demonstrating my suspicion On that note, can I have your reads? atm i have a town pool, not a scum pool if i had a solid reason to sr someone I'd lynch and push but it's unfortunately not the case. reserved early day for decisive softs/lynches like results which haven't happened so I'm unsure Umm honestly I’m not getting what I was hoping for from this can you go through the player list and do a full readslist w/ explanation if you don’t have time or want to do something quicker, try like 3-4 of your most confident reads, town or scum, and your reasoning behind them |
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Post by qtball on Jun 23, 2020 20:24:01 GMT
not liking this easy zol wagon
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