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Post by AlmostZero on Feb 17, 2021 13:34:36 GMT
AlmostZero , you said you don't see scumpartners for Spiderz? What do you think of Spiderz + dubz (as I described above)? Do you feel like a scumpartner of Spiderz wouldn't bus onto him? I would find it likely for scum to do so yesterday - as bgb and litt are conf-town. That only leaves Scorrch, who was second on Spiderz and thus would've been risky as quite some people still had to vote and a lot of time for flipping (which would've been different if he was the third). I don't think it's impossible Scum!Scorrch + Scum!Spiderz would have this happen, but still quite unlikely as the Litt lynch was quite safe. With the safety of the Litt lynch - I remember I found it odd yesterday that for a long time nothing really happened with it. I'm not sure how to analyse this wagon, but would scum be afraid of hopping onto it for putting a bad spotlight onto themselves? What does this say about dubz (who hopped on second) vs. Maple (who hopped on last)? I honestly don't know but I do feel like it is important as scum almost certainly interacted with the Litt wagon in some way (unless scum is all out of Chaos / Spiderz / Scorrch / AZ). About dubz, I was a bit iffy about adding them to my scumpool because I genuinely enjoyed their d5. Her posts felt genuine and had seemed to have actual content in them. I could probably go in a more in-depth analysis, but just their convo with quo on day 5 felt like it was coming from a town!dubz that wanted to give Spiderz the benefit of the doubt. They 100% believed in what they said, and I just didn't see that as scum!dubz. I do say that, but if Spiderz were to flip scum I would without a doubt lynch dubz. This is one of the few reasons why I want to get Spiderz before dubz; a small part of me honestly thinks dubz is town. If Spiderz were to flip scum, then it's scorrch/dubz/spiderz no doubt. Lynch Spiderz |
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Post by AlmostZero on Feb 17, 2021 13:42:11 GMT
AlmostZero , you said you don't see scumpartners for Spiderz? What do you think of Spiderz + dubz (as I described above)? Do you feel like a scumpartner of Spiderz wouldn't bus onto him? I would find it likely for scum to do so yesterday - as bgb and litt are conf-town. That only leaves Scorrch, who was second on Spiderz and thus would've been risky as quite some people still had to vote and a lot of time for flipping (which would've been different if he was the third). I don't think it's impossible Scum!Scorrch + Scum!Spiderz would have this happen, but still quite unlikely as the Litt lynch was quite safe. With the safety of the Litt lynch - I remember I found it odd yesterday that for a long time nothing really happened with it. I'm not sure how to analyse this wagon, but would scum be afraid of hopping onto it for putting a bad spotlight onto themselves? What does this say about dubz (who hopped on second) vs. Maple (who hopped on last)? I honestly don't know but I do feel like it is important as scum almost certainly interacted with the Litt wagon in some way (unless scum is all out of Chaos / Spiderz / Scorrch / AZ). About dubz, I was a bit iffy about adding them to my scumpool because I genuinely enjoyed their d5. Her posts felt genuine and had seemed to have actual content in them. I could probably go in a more in-depth analysis, but just their convo with quo on day 5 felt like it was coming from a town!dubz that wanted to give Spiderz the benefit of the doubt. They 100% believed in what they said, and I just didn't see that as scum!dubz. I do say that, but if Spiderz were to flip scum I would without a doubt lynch dubz. This is one of the few reasons why I want to get Spiderz before dubz; a small part of me honestly thinks dubz is town. If Spiderz were to flip scum, then it's scorrch/dubz/spiderz no doubt. Lynch SpiderzActually I should add (was about to but forgot about it) I actually hadn't even begun considering a dubz/derz, mostly because my townread on dubz turned out to be much stronger than it really should have been. And another weird theory I want to explore is quo + derz as scum partners. Today is the second time when quo is switching from derz onto another wagon; a very small part of me is starting to believe that this is quo is conflicted on a spiderz bus. This isn't something I'm ready to explore until the spiderz flip happens though. |
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Post by AlmostZero on Feb 17, 2021 13:44:43 GMT
Also I don't think I'll have access to my PC before deadline (screw aus time) but I'll be on my phone. The odds of me changing my vote is really low, of all the lynches this slot lynch seems the best rn, both flipwise (i.e. information from a flip) and pure gamewise (i.e. they seem the most scummy)
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 14:08:50 GMT
Thus this push comes off as Spiderz attempting to look town by putting up the pretense of scumhunting and somehow deriving that Lucas is scum. I think Lucas already went over this slightly, altho i was expecting more of a reaction. i mean, i seriously don't get this spiderz on lucas lynch. Didn't give more of a reaction than I did as I wanted to give it a second before going into it too much (to prevent me just being like omg spiderz why you lynching me) - one of my initial thoughts however was that I found it odd how Spiderz suddenly became active (when he was just as demotivated as I was, probably more because he barely did anything for days) today. Could be town wanting to save it, but my first instinct was scum that wanted to do a final push. Though, then again, I'm not sure if I was the best target for a final push (though I 100% agree it could be an attempt to be TRd). I'll try to come back on this later AZ from your perspective, either Scum!Chaos or 3 scum in the past, which I find a pretty interesting perspective. If the former, why (as a lot of people, including me, have concluded town and at least I am not currently looking much into it). If the latter, then how do you feel like they have interacted with the wagons yesterday? |
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 16:16:59 GMT
vote dubzhe seems to come out scum most often I still don't think it's maple but I also don't think it's chaos which makes my poe dubz/derz/az/scorr sometimes it's not derz I think but dubz/az/scorr does not seem plausible with scorr and az double-bussing on derz Do you mean double-bussing on Dubz? if Derz isn't scum it doesn't really matter with the AZ + Scorr "bussing" derz, unless you find that they wouldn't find a target together dubz + spiderz scumteam doesn't seem unlikely to me. They've seemed to avoid interacting too directly. Dubz kept spiderz as scum but never really pushing each other ( dubz on spiderz), with dubz voting Litt > Spiderz of course. Spiderz did kinda defend dubz earlier in this thread, and has always seemed to have a generally positive opinion on dubz, so that is consistent (but I'm not particularly sure for what reason). I don't know how to feel about Spiderz push dying down. Town has been wrong a whole lot this game, but two now conf townies were on Spiderz yesterday (out of 3 in total) + Quo lynched Spiderz at some point last day, too. I'm worrying about scum now having a large minority of the game and as such being much more capable of shaping the discussion (though that would imply AZ or chaos being scum for not being able to do that yesterday) For Quo, if I had to take a guess at full scumteam right now I'd probably guess Dubz+Derz+AZ? Though I don't really know much about Scorrch right now, but this is the only scumteam that'd fit with manipulating the vote theory together with Dubz/Derz (though this has a few assumptions - i just currently have no idea what i expect of a scumteam including Scorrch and Maple is largely based on a minor things due to the smaller contributions) what I meant by that was assuming that 4-person poe if I were to take out dubz as the sole town it would leave scorr and az who both bussed derz which I guess is possible still but... not what I would expect. the thing that makes me consider az + scorr is that neither of them have at all considered using the n2 hit evidence to try to push the other |
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 16:28:10 GMT
AlmostZero , you said you don't see scumpartners for Spiderz? What do you think of Spiderz + dubz (as I described above)? Do you feel like a scumpartner of Spiderz wouldn't bus onto him? I would find it likely for scum to do so yesterday - as bgb and litt are conf-town. That only leaves Scorrch, who was second on Spiderz and thus would've been risky as quite some people still had to vote and a lot of time for flipping (which would've been different if he was the third). I don't think it's impossible Scum!Scorrch + Scum!Spiderz would have this happen, but still quite unlikely as the Litt lynch was quite safe. With the safety of the Litt lynch - I remember I found it odd yesterday that for a long time nothing really happened with it. I'm not sure how to analyse this wagon, but would scum be afraid of hopping onto it for putting a bad spotlight onto themselves? What does this say about dubz (who hopped on second) vs. Maple (who hopped on last)? I honestly don't know but I do feel like it is important as scum almost certainly interacted with the Litt wagon in some way (unless scum is all out of Chaos / Spiderz / Scorrch / AZ). About dubz, I was a bit iffy about adding them to my scumpool because I genuinely enjoyed their d5. Her posts felt genuine and had seemed to have actual content in them. I could probably go in a more in-depth analysis, but just their convo with quo on day 5 felt like it was coming from a town!dubz that wanted to give Spiderz the benefit of the doubt. They 100% believed in what they said, and I just didn't see that as scum!dubz. I do say that, but if Spiderz were to flip scum I would without a doubt lynch dubz. This is one of the few reasons why I want to get Spiderz before dubz; a small part of me honestly thinks dubz is town. If Spiderz were to flip scum, then it's scorrch/dubz/spiderz no doubt. Lynch SpiderzAs far as I could tell this was dubz's only line defending spiderz: "I guess for me derz hasn't done anything that makes me go "Why the heck would town do that", like I can figure some town motivations for things, whereas in litt's case I can't or it would be really mind-bendy to do so. " it seems to me like dubz did a whole lot more chainsawing onto Litt than attempting to defend derz The meat of my conversation with dubz d5 was actually about bgb's claim, which I think is reasonable for someone of either alignment to be able to convincingly disagree with because my argument for bgb being town was possibly a bit too abstract |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 17:33:21 GMT
About dubz, I was a bit iffy about adding them to my scumpool because I genuinely enjoyed their d5. Her posts felt genuine and had seemed to have actual content in them. I could probably go in a more in-depth analysis, but just their convo with quo on day 5 felt like it was coming from a town!dubz that wanted to give Spiderz the benefit of the doubt. They 100% believed in what they said, and I just didn't see that as scum!dubz. I do say that, but if Spiderz were to flip scum I would without a doubt lynch dubz. This is one of the few reasons why I want to get Spiderz before dubz; a small part of me honestly thinks dubz is town. If Spiderz were to flip scum, then it's scorrch/dubz/spiderz no doubt. Lynch SpiderzAs far as I could tell this was dubz's only line defending spiderz: "I guess for me derz hasn't done anything that makes me go "Why the heck would town do that", like I can figure some town motivations for things, whereas in litt's case I can't or it would be really mind-bendy to do so. " it seems to me like dubz did a whole lot more chainsawing onto Litt than attempting to defend derzThe meat of my conversation with dubz d5 was actually about bgb's claim, which I think is reasonable for someone of either alignment to be able to convincingly disagree with because my argument for bgb being town was possibly a bit too abstract Especially this makes me a bit weary. dubz previously said Derz was a possible scum as well. It seems like a scum thing to do to be afraid of being associated with each other, thus ignoring each other more and focusing on attacking the other person. |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 18:17:05 GMT
Side note, I'm feeling a bit better about... even wanting to look at the thread if I don't put the pressure on myself that I want to reread everything the entire time. I think I'll be a bit more casual from now on ^^
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 20:12:14 GMT
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 20:17:08 GMT
quojova who do you think would be partners with Scum!AZ?
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Post by chaostrodon on Feb 17, 2021 20:18:46 GMT
I am told I have the upgraded version since I made it to the future |
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Post by chaostrodon on Feb 17, 2021 20:24:24 GMT
What do people think of spiderz lynch on Lucas?
Lucas has been a universal tr and spiderz has been a universal sr . He has a cat in hell's chance of getting lucas lynched especially with that level of activity. AZ says he thinks derz is trying to get himself tred by doing that. Is that what other people think too? Imo , that sounds like a real bad strat. No one is gonna tr him for that
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 20:43:01 GMT
quojova who do you think would be partners with Scum!AZ? dubz and scorr most likely although derz + dubz + az is also possible I'm still operating with my 4-person poe as you can tell from those partner theories but I'm not sure who to clear out of the 4 yet, although I'm leaning az. this is almost entirely subjective so I'm curious what you think, but to me the last-minute towning of litt by az felt more real than scorr's push on derz's claim weirdness so I'm more inclined to think scorr is a partner with derz than az. |
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 20:51:00 GMT
What do people think of spiderz lynch on Lucas? Lucas has been a universal tr and spiderz has been a universal sr . He has a cat in hell's chance of getting lucas lynched especially with that level of activity. AZ says he thinks derz is trying to get himself tred by doing that. Is that what other people think too? Imo , that sounds like a real bad strat. No one is gonna tr him for that It does not seem out of the realm of plausibility for trs on him to be distributed off that post, or at least for him to think they might What's weird to me is that he should know that as you say, it is a very hard push to make and I can't imagine that he believed a push based on "his activity has died down" is going to be sufficient to motivate a significant wagon although that can come from scum who is trying to make up a push or a lazy town pretty inconclusive post by me but it generally represents my thoughts on the post; my opinion on derz hasn't shifted too much in either direction due to it so far |
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 20:52:56 GMT
quojova who do you think would be partners with Scum!AZ? will you have to place a vote and leave soon btw? I'm not too aware of your timezone circumstances |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 20:59:09 GMT
In about two hours it's midnight. I'm likely to stay up a bit longer as... I'll have to work on an assignment after midnight yay. But yeah, won't be here after like 3 hours from now (hopefully)
Right now I'd also elim AZ from your 4-person POE. I have to admit that that's currently mostly based on impressions (i.e. I agreed with a lot of what AZ said today) rather than in-depth stuff.
I was mostly worrying about the risk of Scum!AZ voting Town!Spiderz here, and I honestly do not know from interactions. From your pov it seems like you'd consider it somewhat likely.
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 21:00:37 GMT
What do people think of spiderz lynch on Lucas? Lucas has been a universal tr and spiderz has been a universal sr . He has a cat in hell's chance of getting lucas lynched especially with that level of activity. AZ says he thinks derz is trying to get himself tred by doing that. Is that what other people think too? Imo , that sounds like a real bad strat. No one is gonna tr him for that It does not seem out of the realm of plausibility for trs on him to be distributed off that post, or at least for him to think they might What's weird to me is that he should know that as you say, it is a very hard push to make and I can't imagine that he believed a push based on "his activity has died down" is going to be sufficient to motivate a significant wagon although that can come from scum who is trying to make up a push or a lazy town pretty inconclusive post by me but it generally represents my thoughts on the post; my opinion on derz hasn't shifted too much in either direction due to it so far After letting this sit for a while, I am still mostly confused why Spiderz out of everyone had that train of thought. Town!Spiderz was just as, if not moreso demotivated to contribute to the game than me (or maybe I was just as demotivated but at least made an attempt), so I find it odd he'd SR me for that reason, when his experience should nuance the situation. |
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 21:08:12 GMT
upon review I really do not think scum!az posts the last-minute case supporting Litt that very well might sink Spiderz if they are partners
which makes me think the scumteam is either exactly az/scorr/dubz or derz/scorr/dubz
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Post by quojova on Feb 17, 2021 21:09:45 GMT
upon review I really do not think scum!az posts the last-minute case supporting Litt that very well might sink Spiderz if they are partners which makes me think the scumteam is either exactly az/scorr/dubz or derz/scorr/dubz elaborating, I think a bus like that is usually going to be a calculated play like what I might expect from scorr on derz than a last-minute descision you throw away so much security for the sake of last-minute cred |
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 17, 2021 23:51:48 GMT
Oh god I was already in bed and forgot to vote. Honestly didn't get much wiser, but I'll support Quo as to not split the vote (and I generally agree with the POE, though not 100% sure why Maple is excluded as they are, even tho they wouldn't have been my vote rn anyway). Vote dubz
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Post by chaostrodon on Feb 18, 2021 0:04:56 GMT
What do you people think of dubz roleclaim , you think the counterpart to genny could be scum?
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Post by dubz on Feb 18, 2021 1:02:19 GMT
upon review I really do not think scum!az posts the last-minute case supporting Litt that very well might sink Spiderz if they are partners which makes me think the scumteam is either exactly az/scorr/dubz or derz/scorr/dubz Have fun figuring that out when I flip town |
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Post by quojova on Feb 18, 2021 1:02:42 GMT
What do you people think of dubz roleclaim , you think the counterpart to genny could be scum? Evidently, yes I do. If I'm being honest it's a claim that seems more town than scum but not overwhelmingly so, and my ability to predict what roles are so far has been abysmal so I'm not going to put very much stock into what roles I think the host put into the game. |
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Post by quojova on Feb 18, 2021 1:03:05 GMT
upon review I really do not think scum!az posts the last-minute case supporting Litt that very well might sink Spiderz if they are partners which makes me think the scumteam is either exactly az/scorr/dubz or derz/scorr/dubz Have fun figuring that out when I flip town thankfully (?) I think the game will be over by then |
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Post by dubz on Feb 18, 2021 1:04:01 GMT
I'm basically vanilla so no huge mechanical loss, but village just the same.
Anybody know the current tally? I'll be voting derz under the assumption that I'm not a total idiot and maybe had one good read, but don't want to get too close to maj with several hours still.
Also unsure why the az suspicion seems to have died down, part of me wants to vote there in honor of AM, but I just don't actually have a good read since I wasn't keeping up with the future thread.
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