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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 12:37:38 GMT
Sorry for my inactivity this phase. Have been doing a lot for uni and going ice skating (or just walking through winterwonderland) today. I should be here for a while in a few hours tho
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Post by ForgotToFlush on Feb 14, 2021 12:44:01 GMT
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 13:29:04 GMT
Dudz Whats your take on spiderz I get the impression he's been trying to stay out of the spotlight here lately, especially since the playerlist in this thread started growing. Like I can't remember the last time I read a post and had an updated thought about him. He's still in my POE.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 13:33:03 GMT
In advance of a full look into bgb I'll mention that I think the jailkeeper claim is by far the least inspired roles claimed so far. It's certainly not impossible (I mean we have masons in the game) but of all the roles here it does seem one of the most likely to be fabricated. I'm not going to push based on rolemeta alone today (and I don't even really want to make it a large basis of the case at all unless I think it's very compelling) but it will be something I am considering. I am not entirely sold on the neighbor roles being masons. Page 18 Past thread, dubz is present with <1 hour left before deadline, but does nothing to attempt to save genny. I don't feel that this in itself is an indicator for scum!dubz, but their actions would not make sense if both genny and dubz as neighbours had mutual townreads. I've already said we weren't masons. I also couldn't save genny, despite my town read on her, I could only tie the vote. And I fell asleep because deadline is midnight here.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 13:34:58 GMT
The only special thing about the role is that we could still chat even if we were in different timelines, which was why I was hoping to move to the other one, to make use of that.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 13:40:53 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying"
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 13:42:16 GMT
And I don't think litt's actions make any sense. Looking between bgb/derz/litt here, just not sure which way to go yet. Would like to see some explanation from litt on target choices, and just more in general from derz today.
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Post by bluegummybear on Feb 14, 2021 15:27:07 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying" I indeed used that logic to factor into my lynch candidate. What made you think using my information to factor in my lynches was scum tactic / bad influenced town play? Do you have any ideas of who that hostile target might be or will you just ignore it because it too vague?
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 15:44:48 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying" I guess this is probably going to end up being an unresolvable disagreement between us. I just think the "I use my false mechanical evidence or heavily overexaggerate it to lead a vote onto some from start of day" is not actually a very common scum play pattern despite it being the kind of thing that's very easy to be paranoid about. The whole time you were doing it as scum you'd be worried about what would happen after they flip, because diverting a kill for one day on a lurker is not worth it to scum if you end up with heavy suspicious on yourself afterwards. In general I think scum tends to play much more reactively than town tends to give it credit for. I think town likes to think scum pulls out proactive plays all the time because it's exciting and fun to consider, but really, especially early on, it's just not really my impression of what scum does.
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 15:45:40 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying" I guess this is probably going to end up being an unresolvable disagreement between us. I just think the "I use my false mechanical evidence or heavily overexaggerate it to lead a vote onto some from start of day" is not actually a very common scum play pattern despite it being the kind of thing that's very easy to be paranoid about. The whole time you were doing it as scum you'd be worried about what would happen after they flip, because diverting a kill for one day on a lurker is not worth it to scum if you end up with heavy suspicious on yourself afterwards. In general I think scum tends to play much more reactively than town tends to give it credit for. I think town likes to think scum pulls out proactive plays all the time because it's exciting and fun to consider, but really, especially early on, it's just not really my impression of what scum does. suspicion*
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:05:28 GMT
The only special thing about the role is that we could still chat even if we were in different timelines, which was why I was hoping to move to the other one, to make use of that. this seems real although it is also technically something dubz could be interested in doing as scum
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:15:47 GMT
idk what the meta is on doing those sorts of reaction test in general this might not be an implied part of your question (and this might just be obvious to you) but if litt is scum he certainly didn't do that because he thought it might end up with a misyeet on you that day. If he is scum he almost certainly did it for towncred imo. But does that makes sense? Would you normally expect a dumb reaction test to result in townreads? Maybe? I'm not sure what the meta is exactly there either but it would be a pretty strange move to do as scum just from the riskiness of it. Yes my thought would be that it was for the townread. Maybe that's too much WIFOM thinking but I do know people do dumb stuff as scum all the time because "omg scum would never do something that dumb." So the sticking point for me in looking for town motivation for it is...why would you choose someone you were village reading already rather than using the gambit to resolve a neutral or scum read? And why would you phrase it in such a way where there was room for scum to refute having a kill ability at all? Even though litt didn't qualify it as much initially, that first post did still mention something along the lines of "unless something has been tampered with". Why would town doing a real reaction test include that phrasing, which a wolf could latch onto in order to claim the whole thing was bs? In any case it's not the main reason for my read, litt had scum points before that happened, it just doesn't get any town points from me. ... I'm annoying myself with going back and forth between mafia and werewolf terminology but I don't feel like retyping words. don't think Litt ever answered this
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:20:53 GMT
I reread through all of dubz and most of it felt pretty nai
my read on him is sliiiiiightly above null
he's not out of my hangpool yet because I might find spiderz and litt to both be hard town after reading them but I don't think I vote him here usually
-unless someone finds an angle on him that is compelling. That probably doesn't come from me though
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:41:42 GMT
litteleven is there anything about your role you have not yet disclosed y/n
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:56:20 GMT
Litt: Litt starts off pretty good. Some perspectives presented and I don't think Litt was pushing a specific agenda here, just sharing his opinion. Especially when he retracts the part about bgb - I think backtracking here feels towny as scum could be afraid of being seen as non-committal*. However, as the PTSD push starts... I really don't agree with what Litt is doing here. As I've mentioned before, I think this wagon would have some scum on it, and Litt seems to be ignoring PTSDs point badly while tunnelling onto scum!PTSD**. Points like the ones here feel rather weak. I don't know why he would be constrained, I don't know when, and I especially do not know why it would be a bad thing to scumread people who are on your wagon***. I don't like the push overall. It was already established when Litt hopped onto it, and quite weak already. Instead of questioning why that many people were on it, Litt lynched PTSD late in the day while never really giving a good reason for it Day 1, in my opinion. The arguing with PTSD felt rather forced into wanting to scumread them, as seen in this post, where I cannot find an ounce of Litt trying to understand PTSD, acknowledging any point, instead just attacking everything, by... repeating his own perspective. PTSD may have been reaching here... but he didn't pretend like he didn't :\. Furthermore, the read on PTSD seems to develop extremely quickly in a very linear fashion: one, two, three. However, the one thing that makes me feel like Litt is town at this point is the fact that the lynch was that late that it in reality did not really matter much anymore, even for locking plurality, it was unlikely any other lynch was going through, and he wasn't going to be influencing anyone, so scum!Litt could just have let the others push a mislynch while not getting involved****, while town!Litt would want to legit push their read and prevent the "flashwagon". Still, pretty damn bad Day 1 and makes Litt a scumread for me right now. Afterwards it felt everyone just started not reading Litt, and just kept babbling about Litt's info. This felt kinda strange for me getting into the thread. Litt's info feels rather fruitless so far. There's really nothing special about it, especially how it was presented later. Not sure if Scum!Litt would be so opportunistic to say that dubz is scum. I don't think scum!Litt would just think of that to get a lynch off right now, as that spells doom (as it just makes him guilty after). I do think it's possible that scum!Litt thought dubz was a different scum party though. Regardless, don't think this is particularly alignment indicative, as Litt did not seem legit enthusiastic, but rather apprehensive about it. On Day 2, Litt did not do anything relevant in my opinion. Some speculation about the game, could be useful over the long term but eh, non-consequential mechanical discussion, no lynched. Then there was pointing out a logical error on Maple's part, which feels rather shallow so I feel like it is NAI. I think the most interesting thing is calling out Alex vs. AZ as scum v scum, which uh. It's not really influencing the future so I still don't feel like it is that important, but I guess AZ would not be a partner of Litt if Litt is scum, as scum wouldn't make this stretch just to SR their partners. But eh, on Day 2 most of you didn't do anything of note, it was reward day, so I understand that much. Litt's Day 3 was okay so far? Not too much to go off, also because of the limited wagons. He went for a pretty easy lynch, which could happen but does seem too easy from my perspective, also with the lack of further progressing the game here. What I do find kinda towny though, ironically, is still maintaining PTSD was scummy - scum may want to find a different hill to die on and """better""" themselves. litteleven I do wonder who you thought ended D1 worse than Spiderz, unless you mean someone like genny or maple, who mostly didn't contribute much, but may not really be that bad on a deeper level (as you barely can read them deeply right now). Lynch Litt. ok I found it so far from my reread I agree with most of these points. Litt's push on dubz felt much hedgier than I was remembering it and just because I think Litt would be more likely to go for that kind of play as scum I give him significantly less town points for it than I do with bgb. Like what was he even planning to accomplish from a reaction test if he threw around "dunno how reliable info is" and "but then again I could just be on a bad side of interaction"? As town I would expect Litt to understand that no scum would fall for such a waffling reaction test and give it with more conviction. Those aren't the kinds of posts you make after thinking about for only a minute so I don't think I'm extracting too much here. In general I would expect Litt to be getting more out of the game than he is currently if he were town. I was very unimpressed by the very lazy 'everyone pushing ptsd felt very town doing so' during d2. I think a him-derz scumteam is very plausible but I'm not using that to inform my read on him too much atm
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 16:58:08 GMT
hello, read through quite a bit OM's rolePM implies he can lose by losing all his energy, but you can't lose that much energy unless exactly 3 mafia exist I don't tl for this
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 17:00:14 GMT
alex's rolepm says he had a rift ripper i.e he'd be able to forcibly remove a rift derz's lets him lock a player in a thread seems pretty weird to me that town would get a once per game shot at counterplay to a different town's mechanic + I don't buy the latest development of 'here you go, you now know how many non town players are left' feels like it's shoehorned in as a quick thing after reading om's roleflip hmmmm but this actually does feel like it stands as evidence against a derz + litt scumteam again I don't think generally undefendable mechanical arguments is where you would go to distance your partner it's still possible I think though
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 17:05:39 GMT
finished rereading litt
he's my bottom town with spiderz (ignoring the other thread)
only have spiderz left to reread now
might be a bit because irl things and I sort of want derz to answer my questions first
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 17:26:45 GMT
I reread through all of dubz and most of it felt pretty nai my read on him is sliiiiiightly above null he's not out of my hangpool yet because I might find spiderz and litt to both be hard town after reading them but I don't think I vote him here usually -unless someone finds an angle on him that is compelling. That probably doesn't come from me though She/her
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 17:29:50 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying" I indeed used that logic to factor into my lynch candidate. What made you think using my information to factor in my lynches was scum tactic / bad influenced town play? Do you have any ideas of who that hostile target might be or will you just ignore it because it too vague? The fact that you are putting more weight on it than I feel it deserves. And yes, I am leaning towards ignoring it because we have no way of knowing who it was. If we had a way to confirm people were telling the truth about their actions, sure.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 17:35:58 GMT
I'm still uncomfortable with the way that bgb has narrowed down who the hostile element acting on him could have been, because it depends on other players telling the truth about their ability usage, and I don't see how that has been confirmed. Also because he already used that logic to get a villager voted off. Easy enough to just keep doing so and then at the end say "darn, guess there was something else going on or someone was lying" I guess this is probably going to end up being an unresolvable disagreement between us. I just think the "I use my false mechanical evidence or heavily overexaggerate it to lead a vote onto some from start of day" is not actually a very common scum play pattern despite it being the kind of thing that's very easy to be paranoid about. The whole time you were doing it as scum you'd be worried about what would happen after they flip, because diverting a kill for one day on a lurker is not worth it to scum if you end up with heavy suspicious on yourself afterwards. In general I think scum tends to play much more reactively than town tends to give it credit for. I think town likes to think scum pulls out proactive plays all the time because it's exciting and fun to consider, but really, especially early on, it's just not really my impression of what scum does. The fact that you can make this argument makes it worth it. Like, that's the whole point of doing stuff like that. Especially in a setting where you only have to be worried about being voted out every other day. And has bgb ended up with heavy suspicion? Not really. To me it depends on the playstyle of the individual, and I don't know bgb, so I'm calling what I see. I don't know if scum had some inkling they would have a hard time getting kills at night, but as that has certainly been the case so far, relying on pushing misvotes becomes even more important. I am willing to consider it's just bad town reliance on mechanics, but no I'm not giving him town points for it and I think it is short-sighted to do so.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 17:38:04 GMT
vote litt still feeling this one the most, but I'll be back in a bit to see if they've responded to questions
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 17:57:02 GMT
Okay I'm here rn.
Like AZ said in the other thread, I was also thrown off by quo's complete fakeclaim. However still think quo!town rn, somewhat because im too burned out on the game to critically check whether their plays would benefit scum, largely because he's been critical and helpful all game.
I want to read up on Spiderz, Litt in recent days and respond to stuff in the past few pages, saw a fair few points that I agree with which is kewl tho
How do ppl feel about Maple? I don't feel like Maple is scummy myself, but I think they may go under the radar a bit rn
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 17:59:48 GMT
I guess this is probably going to end up being an unresolvable disagreement between us. I just think the "I use my false mechanical evidence or heavily overexaggerate it to lead a vote onto some from start of day" is not actually a very common scum play pattern despite it being the kind of thing that's very easy to be paranoid about. The whole time you were doing it as scum you'd be worried about what would happen after they flip, because diverting a kill for one day on a lurker is not worth it to scum if you end up with heavy suspicious on yourself afterwards. In general I think scum tends to play much more reactively than town tends to give it credit for. I think town likes to think scum pulls out proactive plays all the time because it's exciting and fun to consider, but really, especially early on, it's just not really my impression of what scum does. The fact that you can make this argument makes it worth it. Like, that's the whole point of doing stuff like that. Especially in a setting where you only have to be worried about being voted out every other day. And has bgb ended up with heavy suspicion? Not really. To me it depends on the playstyle of the individual, and I don't know bgb, so I'm calling what I see. I don't know if scum had some inkling they would have a hard time getting kills at night, but as that has certainly been the case so far, relying on pushing misvotes becomes even more important. I am willing to consider it's just bad town reliance on mechanics, but no I'm not giving him town points for it and I think it is short-sighted to do so. I think you are going wayyy too deep into the wifom if you believe the above to be an argument bgb anticipated in response to his post. Obviously there's infinite layers of wine here we can dig into and oscillate indefinitely between scum and town but that's not useful and we have to determine a reasonable stopping point. Is "bgb considered the world in which someone would make this overarching argument about scum play patterns and made his claim anticipating that" a reasonable point to stop at? I think that it is almost self-evident that he did not consider it that deeply and no reasonable person would. In general I don't think what I stated in the above post isn't something that gets pointed out extremely often. I suspect what you are actually trying to say here is that there are other arguments (besides that one) that bgb could have anticipated to make that claim and push on genny. That's more reasonable and I'm wondering then what argument he would be expecting to come up to give him town points because I'm not sure exactly what level of analysis you think bgb made his claim with as scum. I think the significantly more valuable question to ask here is not "did bgb end up with heavy suspicion" but "would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion". Again here, I think you are heavily overemphasizing the degree to which scum is willing on d3 to provide a confident conclusion on mechanical evidence because it is natural to be very wary of the flip that proves them wrong that will come very soon. I get the feeling this disagreement will not be resolved anytime soon
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 18:03:23 GMT
The fact that you can make this argument makes it worth it. Like, that's the whole point of doing stuff like that. Especially in a setting where you only have to be worried about being voted out every other day. And has bgb ended up with heavy suspicion? Not really. To me it depends on the playstyle of the individual, and I don't know bgb, so I'm calling what I see. I don't know if scum had some inkling they would have a hard time getting kills at night, but as that has certainly been the case so far, relying on pushing misvotes becomes even more important. I am willing to consider it's just bad town reliance on mechanics, but no I'm not giving him town points for it and I think it is short-sighted to do so. I think you are going wayyy too deep into the wifom if you believe the above to be an argument bgb anticipated in response to his post. Obviously there's infinite layers of wine here we can dig into and oscillate indefinitely between scum and town but that's not useful and we have to determine a reasonable stopping point. Is "bgb considered the world in which someone would make this overarching argument about scum play patterns and made his claim anticipating that" a reasonable point to stop at? I think that it is almost self-evident that he did not consider it that deeply and no reasonable person would. In general I don't think what I stated in the above post isn't something that gets pointed out extremely often. I suspect what you are actually trying to say here is that there are other arguments (besides that one) that bgb could have anticipated to make that claim and push on genny. That's more reasonable and I'm wondering then what argument he would be expecting to come up to give him town points because I'm not sure exactly what level of analysis you think bgb made his claim with as scum. I think the significantly more valuable question to ask here is not "did bgb end up with heavy suspicion" but "would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion". Again here, I think you are heavily overemphasizing the degree to which scum is willing on d3 to provide a confident conclusion on mechanical evidence because it is natural to be very wary of the flip that proves them wrong that will come very soon. I get the feeling this disagreement will not be resolved anytime soon is something* I will note that I think bgb as scum could have made his claim and push with a very low level of analysis because he though the push was somehow pro-town and would continue to be looked at as pro-town even if genny flipped town. I think the contradiction there is evident though so I it's likely that that is not what happened
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