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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 18:05:51 GMT
Okay I'm here rn. Like AZ said in the other thread, I was also thrown off by quo's complete fakeclaim. However still think quo!town rn, somewhat because im too burned out on the game to critically check whether their plays would benefit scum, largely because he's been critical and helpful all game. I want to read up on Spiderz, Litt in recent days and respond to stuff in the past few pages, saw a fair few points that I agree with which is kewl tho How do ppl feel about Maple? I don't feel like Maple is scummy myself, but I think they may go under the radar a bit rn I posted something on maple a few pages back here: ps-mafia.proboards.com/post/75151/threadbasically I have no way of generating an sr on them today so I will not vote them yet they are just barely above null`
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 18:09:21 GMT
About this argument, I think scum does tend to play reactively and I find bgb's active reads (and the perspectives he considers) pretty townie, though I also feel like they're confusing at times.
The hostile element seems more of a misplay to me than anything - agree that it wouldn't be scum trying to push a townie, as then bgb would have to narrow it down even further. Looking back at it, it feels like similar enthusiasm to Maple in a way
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 18:22:17 GMT
Okay I'm here rn. Like AZ said in the other thread, I was also thrown off by quo's complete fakeclaim. However still think quo!town rn, somewhat because im too burned out on the game to critically check whether their plays would benefit scum, largely because he's been critical and helpful all game. I want to read up on Spiderz, Litt in recent days and respond to stuff in the past few pages, saw a fair few points that I agree with which is kewl tho How do ppl feel about Maple? I don't feel like Maple is scummy myself, but I think they may go under the radar a bit rn basically I have no way of generating an sr on them today so I will not vote them THANK YOU for this. I think they've been fair so far, and I can 100% see how their behavior this far could facilitate scum. But the same counts for genny, ani, and such. Scum has had it way too easy for now and I believe they'd actively have allowed these easy pushes to happen.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 18:50:20 GMT
The fact that you can make this argument makes it worth it. Like, that's the whole point of doing stuff like that. Especially in a setting where you only have to be worried about being voted out every other day. And has bgb ended up with heavy suspicion? Not really. To me it depends on the playstyle of the individual, and I don't know bgb, so I'm calling what I see. I don't know if scum had some inkling they would have a hard time getting kills at night, but as that has certainly been the case so far, relying on pushing misvotes becomes even more important. I am willing to consider it's just bad town reliance on mechanics, but no I'm not giving him town points for it and I think it is short-sighted to do so. I think you are going wayyy too deep into the wifom if you believe the above to be an argument bgb anticipated in response to his post. Obviously there's infinite layers of wine here we can dig into and oscillate indefinitely between scum and town but that's not useful and we have to determine a reasonable stopping point. Is "bgb considered the world in which someone would make this overarching argument about scum play patterns and made his claim anticipating that" a reasonable point to stop at? I think that it is almost self-evident that he did not consider it that deeply and no reasonable person would. In general I don't think what I stated in the above post isn't something that gets pointed out extremely often. I suspect what you are actually trying to say here is that there are other arguments (besides that one) that bgb could have anticipated to make that claim and push on genny. That's more reasonable and I'm wondering then what argument he would be expecting to come up to give him town points because I'm not sure exactly what level of analysis you think bgb made his claim with as scum. I think the significantly more valuable question to ask here is not "did bgb end up with heavy suspicion" but "would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion". Again here, I think you are heavily overemphasizing the degree to which scum is willing on d3 to provide a confident conclusion on mechanical evidence because it is natural to be very wary of the flip that proves them wrong that will come very soon. I get the feeling this disagreement will not be resolved anytime soon I think you're framing it as if he said genny was the only viable answer to the question of who targeted him, but he didn't. He had a list of 3 people (originally me, genny, and chaos). Not nearly as risky as coming out with solid fake evidence on one person, and more beneficial as well since it's sets up a "vote until you find the scum" scenario. And now he maintains that list now with 3 - me, chaos, and now derz because he "could have been lying". Ok so...now derz could have been lying and gets thrown in the pile. What happens when another villager gets voted with this logic? Add another on the pile because "well this person also could have been lying." That's my entire point, the "info" is worthless because anybody could have been lying from the beginning. Would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion when 1 of the 3 flipped town? No, I don't think so. But what is the motivation as town to lean on that crutch and put little effort into evaluating outside of it? I'm honestly dumbfounded that you're giving town cred to someone for leaning on something so weak.
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Post by dubz on Feb 14, 2021 18:54:25 GMT
I don't really know what to make of maple, probably for much the same reason people don't know what to make of me
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 19:11:22 GMT
I think you are going wayyy too deep into the wifom if you believe the above to be an argument bgb anticipated in response to his post. Obviously there's infinite layers of wine here we can dig into and oscillate indefinitely between scum and town but that's not useful and we have to determine a reasonable stopping point. Is "bgb considered the world in which someone would make this overarching argument about scum play patterns and made his claim anticipating that" a reasonable point to stop at? I think that it is almost self-evident that he did not consider it that deeply and no reasonable person would. In general I don't think what I stated in the above post isn't something that gets pointed out extremely often. I suspect what you are actually trying to say here is that there are other arguments (besides that one) that bgb could have anticipated to make that claim and push on genny. That's more reasonable and I'm wondering then what argument he would be expecting to come up to give him town points because I'm not sure exactly what level of analysis you think bgb made his claim with as scum. I think the significantly more valuable question to ask here is not "did bgb end up with heavy suspicion" but "would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion". Again here, I think you are heavily overemphasizing the degree to which scum is willing on d3 to provide a confident conclusion on mechanical evidence because it is natural to be very wary of the flip that proves them wrong that will come very soon. I get the feeling this disagreement will not be resolved anytime soon I think you're framing it as if he said genny was the only viable answer to the question of who targeted him, but he didn't. He had a list of 3 people (originally me, genny, and chaos). Not nearly as risky as coming out with solid fake evidence on one person, and more beneficial as well since it's sets up a "vote until you find the scum" scenario. And now he maintains that list now with 3 - me, chaos, and now derz because he "could have been lying". Ok so...now derz could have been lying and gets thrown in the pile. What happens when another villager gets voted with this logic? Add another on the pile because "well this person also could have been lying." That's my entire point, the "info" is worthless because anybody could have been lying from the beginning. Would he have expected to end up with heavy suspicion when 1 of the 3 flipped town? No, I don't think so. But what is the motivation as town to lean on that crutch and put little effort into evaluating outside of it? I'm honestly dumbfounded that you're giving town cred to someone for leaning on something so weak. I've agreed with you from the very beginning that that info was close to worthless. But he didn't think it was; he confidently thought it led to genny; and part of what I've been arguing throughout this day is that from my read on him as a player and what I would generally expect from anyone I don't believe he would push a read he knew was worthless as one that was solid. I see no evidence that he attempted to expand the pool of potential players it pointed to before the rest of the town pointed out the blurryness of the information to him so I don't believe the "1 of the 3 flipped town" analysis is valid. It also again just circles back this broader idea that I think you are massively overestimating the proactivity of the mafia on d3. If anything a lack of kills would make the mafia want to play a longer game and play safer because they can't just rely on a few mischops to get them to the end.
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 21:06:05 GMT
Also what is this wagon. At first I was thinking that I would unlynch Litt if no one else was going to lynch, to not let scum have me mislynching someone, by no one else presenting something different. Now dubz has voted someone else, but I don't like the overall inactivity. A lot of ppl seem pretty much missing in the grand scheme anyway (and it's clearly getting me demotivated).
Shoutouts to
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 21:06:14 GMT
quo and dubz for these last few pages tho, heroes
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Post by bluegummybear on Feb 14, 2021 21:11:37 GMT
Okay I'm here rn. Like AZ said in the other thread, I was also thrown off by quo's complete fakeclaim. However still think quo!town rn, somewhat because im too burned out on the game to critically check whether their plays would benefit scum, largely because he's been critical and helpful all game. I want to read up on Spiderz, Litt in recent days and respond to stuff in the past few pages, saw a fair few points that I agree with which is kewl tho How do ppl feel about Maple? I don't feel like Maple is scummy myself, but I think they may go under the radar a bit rn They are a town lean but they need to contribute more.
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Post by bluegummybear on Feb 14, 2021 21:15:29 GMT
Spidez has was too many red flags to continue living past today.
Vote Spiderz
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Post by bluegummybear on Feb 14, 2021 21:23:51 GMT
Spidez has was too many red flags to continue living past today. Vote Spiderz~~was~~ *
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 21:50:05 GMT
Spidez has was too many red flags to continue living past today. Vote Spiderzthank you for this extremely precise accusation which makes your thought process extremely clear to me
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 21:52:30 GMT
so it looks like this day is shaping up to be derz v litt (unless anyone would like to contest that with another wagon fairly soon)
from a pure statistical standpoint though the odds they both happen to be scum seem somewhat low so if wagoners could specifically elaborate on why they are choosing one over the other that would be helpful
pretty soon I'll just look back into derz regardless of if he is here or not
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 22:24:39 GMT
spiderz most recent posts seem like very low effort. then again, mine have been too I'm just going to assume youre a villager because youre posting walls of analysis after "subbing" into our timeline Finished reading Don't really care for dubz pbpa, especially after saying "tldr wont read" (or whatever) wrt lucas wall; the degree of sheer words just seemed superfluous especially since it was largely just commentating, rather than analyzing. All reads and mechanics aside, I'm least whelmed by Lit and concede that w/ two kills not happening in a row, my mechanical information n1 ultimately was a false positive. Would this not be worth reading through in your eyes? Snaq are you really ok with maple saying this lol? The part in the bolded is a scumtell for me which is why I made sure to at least go through the content of your post This post is interesting and hadn't looked at it before. I wasn't really offended by it, but I agree that it's a bit of a strange thing to just say that when there was plenty of analysing I think? That was a strange post, especially wrt to the former. I don't like Spiderz telling me to do something about this though. Why not do it himself if he feels it's a scumtell? Do I need to be a lightningrod Before this his reasonable posts were a bit ago, giving reads on i.e. bgb and dubz. It was still quite passive and this slot has honestly not been very good the past few days (and not day 1 either oop-), especially with how the genny lynch was supported passively, but also how some things about Litt were easy to say without backing them up (and once again, reads seem kinda low effort based on former-playing-with-them feelings)
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 22:28:31 GMT
fwiw I've skimmed over the posts of the past few pages, but there's not much I feel like I really want to respond to quojova what do you think of scorrch currently tho. my read is honestly... consistent, as I've not really seen too much committing, but otherwise he seems fine and I do like his analysis on the OM kill, but nothing too special.
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 22:31:52 GMT
I don't have much new to say about Litt... to what degree to people like him for his claim? I do think the way he has been communicating about his powers has seemed open, but I don't really like too much outside of that (and honestly hasn't done too much I do like this post though. The vanitying of bgb is still something that doesn't sit quite right too doesn't make sense for ptsd to just continue pushing them and not taking into account anyone else's thoughts maple + genny piled votes onto either side while bgb vanitied which was really weird to me at the time and but I think bgb tanks their scum game if they continue their read for a whole 2 days after which makes me feel like it's a genuine good read at this point in time As an aside, I dislike how many people I'm not really considering right now, but I also honestly don't have the energy to go in-depth for a gamestate that's barely changing (besides having less and less town ??)
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Post by Snaq ◢ ◤ on Feb 14, 2021 22:34:23 GMT
On a more meta way of looking at it - so far I've understood both parts of the wagon always. This is the first time where I don't feel like either push is *too* easy as both players have really brought something to the game at some point and you can really dive deeper into what they've been doing. I'd like anyone who's voting to really compare and contrast their thoughts on the two players, so we can really see why you're voting the way you are. If a third, why not one of these? Honestly, I am less interested in why you SR someone (it makes sense), and more in why you don't SR the other person as much (this is scarier). maple spiderz dubz ScorrchingTheaph litteleven
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Post by quojova on Feb 14, 2021 22:35:16 GMT
I can't see myself voting scorr today. He was my second highest town yesterday for those 2 previously mentioned posts and also general mechanical and player solving (although I don't have too much conviction in reading a player from the latter two). Like with Lucas it's possible he's scum (and probably more likely than Lucas) but I don't have an angle I can approach scorr from that gives me any confidence in that besides "could be possible I guess". I don't love how he spent most of yesterday talking mechanics but it doesn't shift me enough to turn what was a high tr into my bottom town today. I am very confused about what a role would be that is unclaimable after you are no longer that role tho still mostly sums up my thoughts (except the last line) he's probably dropped from #2 town to like #3-4 town for me but he's still someone I can't justify voting
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Post by ScorrchingTheaph on Feb 14, 2021 22:59:16 GMT
Next, I glanced over to the strange bi-pedal goat thing. The thing was a disturbing abomination, and with a body like that, how could they not be a criminal? I could not agree more with this sentiment. Vote: spiderz
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Post by ScorrchingTheaph on Feb 14, 2021 23:04:19 GMT
Wait I think I have solved the game. town!Litt could have targetted town!AZ (as a possibility, not saying that they did and lied about it) with the rewarded roleblock, which would have granted AZ access to their pull ability. Scum!chaos was afraid of a vote to kill stage with a decently high probability that they could be lynched, and that AZ could pull a town member and essentially gain control of the Future thread. An AZ kill is also a smart play from chaos because it would also address the theory of scum's access to same or cross thread kills, because an AZ death where scum only has access to same thread kills would confirm chaos as scum. This gives him the wifom and benefit of the doubt while also being temporarily unlynchable until town manages to move him or themselves across threads. I actually plan to sleep after this but it doesn't seem like litt targeting az here is a necessary part of this theory that being said I'm assuming this is mostly just a meme? Sometimes I wonder why I am not taken seriously but then I remember that I do dumb things. Aside from spiderz's obvious red flags, he seems like a plausible partner to chaos due to the reward vote. dubz and genny were the other voters and I think they are signifigantly less scummy than spiderz.
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Post by ScorrchingTheaph on Feb 14, 2021 23:06:43 GMT
Honestly, I am less interested in why you SR someone (it makes sense), and more in why you don't SR the other person as much (this is scarier). Litt semi-claimed pretty early on, and did not fumble their claim and attempt to explain it away as not wanting to die.
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Post by quojova on Feb 15, 2021 0:08:04 GMT
Honestly, I am less interested in why you SR someone (it makes sense), and more in why you don't SR the other person as much (this is scarier). Litt semi-claimed pretty early on, and did not fumble their claim and attempt to explain it away as not wanting to die. how compelling do you actually find the weirdness around derz's role as a way to assess into his alignment? does derz's disappearance mean anything to you alignment-wise?
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Post by quojova on Feb 15, 2021 0:08:19 GMT
Litt semi-claimed pretty early on, and did not fumble their claim and attempt to explain it away as not wanting to die. how compelling do you actually find the weirdness around derz's role as a way to assess into his alignment? does derz's disappearance mean anything to you alignment-wise? assess his alignment*
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Post by quojova on Feb 15, 2021 0:14:28 GMT
The info gained isn’t from you answering the question, it’s your blatant refusal to answer the question. You put a lynch on BGB and then shifted it to Maple. When confronted on why you said that you wanted to RVS onto someone you didn’t know well, which would be a valid excuse if you had not lynched BGB first. but instead of providing a valid reason of why you lynched BGB first you keep deflecting the question, which helps absolutely no one in this situation. and the only reason why someone would answer that question would be because they don’t have an answer. and if you don’t have an answer why wouldn’t you say it LOL, let me get this out the way, me voting BGB and un voting them was just a random decision that I made on a whim, it meant nothing, it still means nothing really, you pressuring for it and trying to squeeze something out of it was my concern, usually when I ask questions I have an intent behind it, with me wanting to look for a certain answer, I wasn't trying to refuse to answer the question, I wanted to know your intent on asking the question, about an NAI interaction, asking questions for the sake of asking questions is a super scumtell!! this post gives me scumvibes very similar to derz as scum in the discord game it's been on my mind for a few days now but I never mentioned it because admittedly it is very weak evidence
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Post by quojova on Feb 15, 2021 0:32:07 GMT
This is part of my role, I get to know this on N3 the thing that was weird about this to me that I didn't want to say until spiderz could answer questions about it was that the "n3 is special" distinction that I claimed was completely made up and it seemed like he might have incorporated that to make his fakeclaim
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