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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 4:05:10 GMT
lmao i was gonna comment on one more day
i would tr dat but dudes a surv lmoaa
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 4:06:32 GMT
quojova im here rn so ask me stuff so i can make my slot clearer for you (sans my role)
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 4:07:47 GMT
sky, you would care the most about finding the goo rn bc its literally the only thing that is a threat to your win-con
I'm not fully sold that the goo is necessarily still alive but it's definitely a factor in my choice of vote. Where do you see goo being more likely between fjp/abdel? Do you think anything raises or lowers vet's chances in that regard?
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 4:08:40 GMT
quojova im here rn so ask me stuff so i can make my slot clearer for you (sans my role) if scum is not you + abdel right now who is it |
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 4:08:55 GMT
quojova im here rn so ask me stuff so i can make my slot clearer for you (sans my role) if scum is not you + abdel right now who is it *and not necessarily as a team |
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Post by skyfigueroa on Aug 14, 2020 4:21:21 GMT
wait quo when do you and fort point out that the cultrod only wins with itself is it possible to bring up the line? ok that's a lot of deaths. also my only locktown turned out scum. I guess he was right when he said "effort =/= town" FUCK I think that has to be a double or even triple PGO proc right? I can see a double doc on bomb moss or something?  uhhhhhhhhhh what do we do now. I was gonna advocate a push on kliff  I don't have a lot of time rn because I'm about to have a haircut forced on me by my mom so i'll give more thoughts in a few hours also i was gonna say this line felt like it came from a town perspective earlier on but looking back at it, it's more of a non-mafia one tbh also some more stuff only the cultrod wins when n5 comes and they lightningrod specifically so that town dont play against their wincon rb cant block pgo so there this was the first mention of the cultrod winning alone i could find, unless i missed when quo and fort mentioned it at first |
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 4:24:17 GMT
if scum is not you + abdel right now who is it *and not necessarily as a team either you + cayden/abdel or abdel + vet cayden not dying was wack + macho doc claim/“i didnt die lmao” could have very well been coached you would be the primary scumpartner with cayden in this case based on early day vote patterns shifting away from them on multiple occasions (to gary and whoever d1 elim was) but fort slot essentially voted in the same way so equity goes both ways you would be more likely scum in this scenario based on how you were more active in the plurshift and cayden having claimed doc on you last night but this involves xinc having been roleblocked or docced n2 which doc is pretty unlikely considering xinc was never tr’d much rb could have very well happened which is why massclaim would be reaaaaaalllly nice the other scenario is more based on “if cayden is actually macho doc” scenario vet has been floating all game and idk why yall tr that slot mmm i guess if you were scum and cayden town you could have been reasonably confident that you’ve pocketed cayden solidly at this point which makes sense considering post progression d4 yea throw quojova back into scumpool for the latter scenario do i see quo+abdel openwolfing this entire time and then bussing for tc? i guess thats possible too tldr xinc is my hardest tr and its been that way since i came in and revised scumpool is cayden + quo or quo + abdel maf pair or one of quo/abdel maf + vet goo |
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 4:26:30 GMT
wait quo when do you and fort point out that the cultrod only wins with itself is it possible to bring up the line? ok that's a lot of deaths. also my only locktown turned out scum. I guess he was right when he said "effort =/= town" FUCK I think that has to be a double or even triple PGO proc right? I can see a double doc on bomb moss or something? uhhhhhhhhhh what do we do now. I was gonna advocate a push on kliff I don't have a lot of time rn because I'm about to have a haircut forced on me by my mom so i'll give more thoughts in a few hours also i was gonna say this line felt like it came from a town perspective earlier on but looking back at it, it's more of a non-mafia one tbh also some more stuff only the cultrod wins when n5 comes and they lightningrod specifically so that town dont play against their wincon rb cant block pgo so there this was the first mention of the cultrod winning alone i could find, unless i missed when quo and fort mentioned it at first on page 30 and yes that is the first mention I believe, it was that post that made me clarify the mechanics of that with the host eventually |
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 4:26:34 GMT
wait quo when do you and fort point out that the cultrod only wins with itself is it possible to bring up the line? ok that's a lot of deaths. also my only locktown turned out scum. I guess he was right when he said "effort =/= town" FUCK I think that has to be a double or even triple PGO proc right? I can see a double doc on bomb moss or something? uhhhhhhhhhh what do we do now. I was gonna advocate a push on kliff I don't have a lot of time rn because I'm about to have a haircut forced on me by my mom so i'll give more thoughts in a few hours also i was gonna say this line felt like it came from a town perspective earlier on but looking back at it, it's more of a non-mafia one tbh also some more stuff only the cultrod wins when n5 comes and they lightningrod specifically so that town dont play against their wincon rb cant block pgo so there this was the first mention of the cultrod winning alone i could find, unless i missed when quo and fort mentioned it at first no i was the first person to mention it i checked thread before that point and people up to that point were all talking about winning with goo so i wanted to clarify that should clearly put me as not goo |
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Post by skyfigueroa on Aug 14, 2020 4:36:15 GMT
wait quo when do you and fort point out that the cultrod only wins with itself is it possible to bring up the line? also i was gonna say this line felt like it came from a town perspective earlier on but looking back at it, it's more of a non-mafia one tbh this was the first mention of the cultrod winning alone i could find, unless i missed when quo and fort mentioned it at first no i was the first person to mention it i checked thread before that point and people up to that point were all talking about winning with goo so i wanted to clarify that should clearly put me as not goo ye that's what i was tryna get at since u brought attention to it. ig my cult pool is down to abdel and vet now |
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 4:40:20 GMT
i thought about this and realized i’d totally do what i did here as goo just to get towncred later
this is like a personal meta thing so take it as you will
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 5:00:37 GMT
*and not necessarily as a team either you + cayden/abdel or abdel + vet cayden not dying was wack + macho doc claim/“i didnt die lmao” could have very well been coached you would be the primary scumpartner with cayden in this case based on early day vote patterns shifting away from them on multiple occasions (to gary and whoever d1 elim was) but fort slot essentially voted in the same way so equity goes both ways you would be more likely scum in this scenario based on how you were more active in the plurshift and cayden having claimed doc on you last night but this involves xinc having been roleblocked or docced n2 which doc is pretty unlikely considering xinc was never tr’d much rb could have very well happened which is why massclaim would be reaaaaaalllly nice the other scenario is more based on “if cayden is actually macho doc” scenario vet has been floating all game and idk why yall tr that slot mmm i guess if you were scum and cayden town you could have been reasonably confident that you’ve pocketed cayden solidly at this point which makes sense considering post progression d4 yea throw quojova back into scumpool for the latter scenario do i see quo+abdel openwolfing this entire time and then bussing for tc? i guess thats possible too tldr xinc is my hardest tr and its been that way since i came in and revised scumpool is cayden + quo or quo + abdel maf pair or one of quo/abdel maf + vet goo Interesting takes in this post, although I do hope you realize that the only scumpair in there that doesn't include me is exactly abdel maf + vet goo and because of that I can't buy into any of the other ones. cayden + me makes some amount of sense from your pov, I won't contest this too strongly because I think there is something reasonable to it. I think if you look back though, past d2 I think you will find that I made a mostly reasonable contention that cayden's scumchance did not significantly surpass 4/10 if at all, and fort's excessive push on it was weird. I don't remember cayden being a significant wagon consideration on d1. I'm absolutely certain that cayden would not make the fake doc claim as solo 3p though, which is why I'm not interested in a kill here today given the other options available. why would I bus abdel as a partner here when I win very often as maf if I just fish for a kill on the ptsd/fjp slots I "set up" as scummy yesterday? The risk/reward looks so skewed in the world where I make that play. abdel maf + vet goo was a pair I was considering, because I don't think vet is maf (from the mindmeld we had + the vigvig scumflip + one other minor factor that pgo went off on the night before vet said it just made sense for all tourists to go on the surv) and I non-3p read/tr everyone outside of you/abdel/vet strongly so if I ended up with a tr on you/abdel by eod I would have to look into vet goo possibilities a lot more seriously. But I still think vet is not maf and I'm still not convinced that goo is always alive here, which makes me really really wary of a vet kill because again, we often just lose if we miss here. probably going to sleep soon, but will stick around for a few more minutes |
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 5:12:22 GMT
either you + cayden/abdel or abdel + vet cayden not dying was wack + macho doc claim/“i didnt die lmao” could have very well been coached you would be the primary scumpartner with cayden in this case based on early day vote patterns shifting away from them on multiple occasions (to gary and whoever d1 elim was) but fort slot essentially voted in the same way so equity goes both ways you would be more likely scum in this scenario based on how you were more active in the plurshift and cayden having claimed doc on you last night but this involves xinc having been roleblocked or docced n2 which doc is pretty unlikely considering xinc was never tr’d much rb could have very well happened which is why massclaim would be reaaaaaalllly nice the other scenario is more based on “if cayden is actually macho doc” scenario vet has been floating all game and idk why yall tr that slot mmm i guess if you were scum and cayden town you could have been reasonably confident that you’ve pocketed cayden solidly at this point which makes sense considering post progression d4 yea throw quojova back into scumpool for the latter scenario do i see quo+abdel openwolfing this entire time and then bussing for tc? i guess thats possible too tldr xinc is my hardest tr and its been that way since i came in and revised scumpool is cayden + quo or quo + abdel maf pair or one of quo/abdel maf + vet goo Interesting takes in this post, although I do hope you realize that the only scumpair in there that doesn't include me is exactly abdel maf + vet goo and because of that I can't buy into any of the other ones. cayden + me makes some amount of sense from your pov, I won't contest this too strongly because I think there is something reasonable to it. I think if you look back though, past d2 I think you will find that I made a mostly reasonable contention that cayden's scumchance did not significantly surpass 4/10 if at all, and fort's excessive push on it was weird. I don't remember cayden being a significant wagon consideration on d1. I'm absolutely certain that cayden would not make the fake doc claim as solo 3p though, which is why I'm not interested in a kill here today given the other options available. why would I bus abdel as a partner here when I win very often as maf if I just fish for a kill on the ptsd/fjp slots I "set up" as scummy yesterday? The risk/reward looks so skewed in the world where I make that play. abdel maf + vet goo was a pair I was considering, because I don't think vet is maf (from the mindmeld we had + the vigvig scumflip + one other minor factor that pgo went off on the night before vet said it just made sense for all tourists to go on the surv) and I non-3p read/tr everyone outside of you/abdel/vet strongly so if I ended up with a tr on you/abdel by eod I would have to look into vet goo possibilities a lot more seriously. But I still think vet is not maf and I'm still not convinced that goo is always alive here, which makes me really really wary of a vet kill because again, we often just lose if we miss here. probably going to sleep soon, but will stick around for a few more minutes mm your point about the bus makes a lot of sense considering ptsd was the nk here townvet could have very well been nk’d in that world instead considering how they were coasting or xinc im gonna respond to your post in portions because the quote function does a very poor job of making the quoted post readable proboards man wack i forgot to mention it in the tldr but i do think abdel + cayden is still very possible as well idk why i left it out the fort push yday + doc claim could have been coached theater i dont know cayden at all to know if they’re the type to simultaneously lurk and fully commit to scumpartner’s coaching tho |
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:15:00 GMT
If goo is still alive then it makes sense for mafia to kill someone they suspect. My goo pool would be anyone except xinc and fjp. Xinc is excluded because I think goo would make it more clear that they don't have a roleblock for fear of a nightkill and fjp is excluded because if vigvig wasn't goo then he was almost certainly mafia and fjp seems like the most likely partner. Regardless of goo being alive or not I think we should mass claim today. I'm too tired to start discussing this stuff thoroughly at exactly this moment but I'll leave it open for discussion tomorrow: why is cayden in your goo pool? The only scum scenario I see with cayden is exactly maf team with micro where does the fjp/vigvig read come from? Is it from simple lack of connection/poe? abdel/vigvig seemed to worked more clearly from my iso reads, although I just want to sleep so I'm not going to reinforce that thought until tomorrow. I may take cayden out after seeing people's claims. fjp/vigvig comes from poe. I don't think it is abdel/vigvig when fort (abdel slot) was asking to start a vigvig wagon before tunneling cayden. They didn't ever vote vigvig, but I don't see any connections in favor of a fort/vigvig team either. Can you explain your thoughts on that team? |
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 5:19:33 GMT
i actually covered a good portion of it
nice
i agree with most of your posts regarding trying to find goo
and eliminating potential goo over potential mafia
is anyone willing to comb over micro/vigvig’s posts to ascertain whether they were been scumpair or not
cuz man i dont wanna
i subbed in to low effort because flushie came crying to me
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 5:21:11 GMT
i’ll try to do it overnight
i have no life anyways
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:23:15 GMT
Where is abdel? I don't feel like waiting for abdel to claim who knows when so everyone please just hardclaim after seeing this. Xinc included because he has been so dodgy about it.
I'm tourist and visited chad/sky.
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 5:27:07 GMT
meh ptsd nk makes sense if abdel is last maf that had to scramble shit together in the soan of a few hours
which would mean abdel is never the elim today
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Post by fairyjigglypuff on Aug 14, 2020 5:28:17 GMT
the micro vigvig reread seems ever more important
sigh
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:32:53 GMT
meh ptsd nk makes sense if abdel is last maf that had to scramble shit together in the soan of a few hours which would mean abdel is never the elim today  |
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:33:46 GMT
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 5:36:36 GMT
I'm too tired to start discussing this stuff thoroughly at exactly this moment but I'll leave it open for discussion tomorrow: why is cayden in your goo pool? The only scum scenario I see with cayden is exactly maf team with micro where does the fjp/vigvig read come from? Is it from simple lack of connection/poe? abdel/vigvig seemed to worked more clearly from my iso reads, although I just want to sleep so I'm not going to reinforce that thought until tomorrow. I may take cayden out after seeing people's claims. fjp/vigvig comes from poe. I don't think it is abdel/vigvig when fort (abdel slot) was asking to start a vigvig wagon before tunneling cayden. They didn't ever vote vigvig, but I don't see any connections in favor of a fort/vigvig team either. Can you explain your thoughts on that team? apparently fort isos don't work anymore(?) which makes this really annoying because I can't fully confirm what I'm about to say rn since I'm not looking through the whole thread this exact instant. I'm going to reference at least one post and its rough location from memory, if you want to dig that up and have the patience required to do that feel free to. Fort has actually put some amount of sus on pretty much every slot left in the game at this point, and to some degree, to me it reads like trying to mask partners, trying to look as good as possible in the instance of a scum flip, or just trying to look plain agenda-less as possible as a goo. Around the time the cayden/micro wagon debate was wrapping up I remember him bringing up fjp's slot for being quiet and calling sus on him, somewhat out of nowhere. He made a post at some point before that if I recall correctly which was essentially saying that almost all lurk slots had something that would make the wagon an okay vote. But after that, he went hard on cayden, which makes me think if he was a maf he was not really interested in those 4 other slots at all while trying to maintain the opposite appearance. I can't iso fort anymore and I don't really even remember the general location of the posts you are referring to, but I remember thinking nothing fort had done had actually significantly increased the odds of a vigvig vote. And he opposed the vigvig wagon strongly at eod3. Do you have those fort/vigvig posts you are talking about on hand by any chance/do you know the general location of them? They are pretty significant as of now |
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:36:47 GMT
the micro vigvig reread seems ever more important sigh Idk if you realized yet, but I don't think anyone is scum with vigvig except you. In micro's case check micro's vote on vigvig day 3. |
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Post by Veteran Padgett on Aug 14, 2020 5:41:49 GMT
In response to quo: Day 2 thoughts: xnad - Town lean. Okay day 1 and good day 2. Has been tunneling gary but unlike ptsd actually has reasons for his tunnel. quo - Scum lean. One thing I'm starting to notice is how little anything quo says helps to find scum. Day 1 was a lot of setup discussion. Today quo is talking very little compared to day 1 and it's mostly lamenting player inactivity. I don't think we have seen any discussion about player interactions from quo. fort - Slight town lean. MVP of day 2 in terms of pushing the game forward. Not gonna move this into a full town lean yet due to their involvement in the gary wagon and the fact we have only seen one day of discussion from them. micro - Slight town lean. I thought they had a strong opening, but they kinda dropped off. Still, I don't see anything glaringly wrong with their posts today and they have been trying to pressure a few people. tb2 - Town lean. Despite not having as many posts today their few posts seemed town. Also feels like the only one besides fort to talk about any active players other than gary. gts - Slight town lean. Claimed tourist and said they misread the roles list. Lots of wifom but I like simple explanations. Although they focus too heavily on defending themself, they had more of reason to do so today and have provided some reads. kliff - Scum lean. Made a last minute push on ayia without any discussion. Ayia hadn't said anything since basically prodging, so I'm not sure what they could have done to make kliff suddenly think they were scum. ptsd - Slight scum lean. Scummy day 1. Is on the gary wagon. litt - Neutral. Although litt has enough posts now to start to form a read, the posts have a lot of ideas that have already been stated. Will have to look closer tomorrow. vigvig - Scum. In order of town to scum: tb2 xnad fort micro gts litt ptsd quo kliff vigvig If you aren't on this list it's because you haven't done anything. out of curiosity does a specific flip from gary make me not town all of a sudden? lmao Anyways, here's something that's hopefully interesting:
I think i've given more than sufficient reasoning as to why he's my biggest scumread right now, so I didn't bother to repeat it when I did my vote. Gary's wagon didn't grow out of nowhere. He'd been scummy all game and people have been scumreading him for it all day. His wagon grew out of MY decision to lynch a scumread instead of making a policy lynch. I take full responsibility for making that decision: vigvig was parked on it and he said he was going to bed, so I saw an opportunity to put my vote where my mouth was. To clarify, I'd been complaining about the fact that the game has been nothing but talk about afks, which is completely NAI. Any and every alignment can say "you're lurking / doing nothing i want to policy you." I decided that making a policy lynch only accentuates that problem because the entire wagon becomes NAI. I wanted the game to progress, and I still believe lynching a scumslot instead of a policy is the best way to do that. Town can afford to policy Cayden on day 5, because every surviving townie wins with goo. (at least that's my understanding of it, do correct me if i'm wrong) We'd be better off trying to find mafia or sk before then.
----- I like most of your reads (obviously i disagree with the gary read) the quo take is interesting. I can maybe get behind that let's see
love the kliff read (tho what does prodging mean?)
I can definitely see vig in tomorrow's lynchpool
also does 4 nightkills today mean pgo has used action already? i'm counting the mafia kill, sk kill, potential vig kill?, and potential pgo? which would mean the cult rod is dead now i think OH right i forgot there was a vig and i don't think cult rod is confdead by any means. We've only had 1 scum flip, which could be any of the non-survivor scums. But I do think pgo has to have gone off for FOUR kills, but it could be only one proc instead of a swarm.
I'm liking the subs' activity so far, but as the bomb moss flip taught me, effort != town so i'll analyze more in depth later. for now 1) i'm wary about the cayden lynch i feel like it's drawing way too many assumptions about what happened last night 2) where is padgett's vigvig push can we at least discuss why that's a better/worse lynch than cayden? 3) still on page 1/21 are any of your bgs still alive this is an interesting question that I do want to see the answer to ok goodnight yalls i've been up way too late too many nights in a row lmao |
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Post by quojova on Aug 14, 2020 5:45:42 GMT
meh ptsd nk makes sense if abdel is last maf that had to scramble shit together in the soan of a few hours which would mean abdel is never the elim today this first line is exactly what I was thinking of in that one vague post I made at SoD today, slightly extended to you as well because I didn't know how caught up with the gamestate you would be today, which from my pov still looks like a kill you could have made as well I didn't want to mention it at the time because I figured if I mentioned it, it would give you/abdel a free chance to catch up quickly to disprove it. Sort of a moot point now that abdel is over 24 hours late though. Ignoring how I think you could have made the kill because we can't find common ground there obviously, I don't the nk analysis is strong enough that abdel is always maf here, and I'm still not sold that the goo is even necessarily alive. The speed at which you were willing to declare abdel as never the elim today is somewhat alarming to me ACTUAL SLEEP TIME NOW |
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uhhhhhhhhhh
